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Weekend Forecast for February 10-12, 2017

By Reagen Sulewski

February 10, 2017

Go get your own movie, loser.

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Reviews are typically savage, hammering the sub-Hallmark writing and wooden acting, and saving special reprobation for the unsexiest sex scenes that ever sexed. A massive drop in opening weekends to around $38 million is likely in store here, as they have badly out-kicked their coverage on the desire for this movie.

Trending in the exact opposite direction is John Wick: Chapter 2, a sequel to 2014's most surprising action movie. Starring Keanu Reeves as a retired hitman brought back into action after his dog was killed by low-level mobsters, it looked for all the world like a cliched, quickie action flick with an ill-suited star. The big shock came when it turned out to be one of the most stylish and enervating films of that year, with its superior choreography (thanks to direction by the stunt coordinators of The Matrix) and fascinating “just enough” world building to make it an endlessly compelling watch. Reeves played the lead as a bit of a blank slate – playing to his strengths – but with a barely concealed rage and despair that served just what the film needed. And now he's got another franchise to call his own.

While it opened to just $14 million, it gained a decent following on its release on digital and cable, generating a legitimate word-of-mouth campaign, to the point where it's being mentioned in the same breath as films like Taken and Die Hard – an iconic role that drives a series.

Chapter 2 starts essentially right after the first movie ends, with Wick heading back into the criminal underworld in order to pay off a debt, but finding a rather significant bounty on his head, leading to some more artfully placed bullets. In addition to the returning Ian McShane and Lance Riddick, this film adds a couple of notable actors – Common and Ruby Rose, along with a bit of stunt casting in Laurence Fishburne as a vindictive New York crime lord. Reviews are stellar, stating that the film offers exactly what people loved about the first edition while adding just enough more, making this a candidate for a big boost in opening weekend. I'd look for around $31 million, bumping it into Taken territory.




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All of this bumps Split out of first place for the first time since mid-January, having grossed $100 million in the meantime – the first true 2017 release to do so. It's seemingly inspired a resurrection of the idea of continuing the (loosely) connected Unbreakable universe, which is probably the most significant thing that could have happened out of this release. In its fourth week, it should drop to about $8 million.

Rings, the waaaay too late sequel to the Rings franchise, landed with a big flop at just $13 million. It's hard to imagine any recovery from here, and it should drop heavily to $6 million.

Similar numbers are in store for A Dog's Purpose and Hidden Figures, the latter of which is proving to be the *slightly* bigger box office hit of the Best Picture nominees, compared to La La Land, which lost ground this weekend (but should see a big boost for Valentine's Day).


Forecast: Weekend of February 10-12, 2017
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 The LEGO Batman Movie 4,088 New 58.3
2 Fifty Shades Darker 3,710 New 37.7
3 John Wick: Chapter 2 3,113 New 30.9
4 Split 2,957 -416 8.0
5 Rings 2,931 0 6.5
6 Hidden Figures 2,667 -734 6.2
7 A Dog's Purpose 3,037 -157 6.0
8 La La Land 2,065 -1,171 4.7
9 Sing 1,468 -825 2.8
10 Resident Evil: The Final Chapter 1,213 -1,891 1.9

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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