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Weekend Forecast for January 27-29, 2017

By Reagen Sulewski

January 27, 2017

How does anyone have hope against Alice? Look what she can do.

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Some of this might have the potential to be overlooked if the film had redeeming qualities beyond “hey, puppy!” or Look Who's Talking with a dog, but unfortunately it's a bit of cinematic pabulum with the side possibility that you're supporting animal abuse baked into it. It's probably been knocked back from a high teens performer into around $12 million thanks to these allegations and the terrible reviews.

Finally, there's an expansion into wide release to deal with, as Gold arrives after an Oscar qualifying run. The film is a loose retelling of the Bre-X gold mining scandal (intimately familiar to Canadians, but a bit of a clean slate for everyone else). Matthew McConaughey plays the head of a small junior mining company that claims to have found a world-beating gold deposit deep in the Indonesian jungle. Billions could be at stake. The problem – it's all fraud, the result of salting the mines to get better results and fool Wall Street. Also starring Edgar Ramirez, Bryce Dallas Howard and Corey Stoll, it's a bit of a low rent companion piece to Wolf of Wall Street, and the chance to see McConaughey in a terrible baldcap and shouting like a crazed prospector. Directed by Stephen Gaghan, it was hoped to be a film with some Oscar potential, but has completely struck out, with only a Best Song Golden Globe nomination to hang on to. Opening in around 2,100 venues, it should land with a thud of around $5 million.

Last weekend, Split beat all expectations with a $40 million opening weekend for its multiple-personality horror film and the real-life horror of us having to deal with M. Night Shyamalan again, along with his too-clever-by-half twisty ways. Finally receiving good reviews for the first time in a while, the surprise result here probably won't end up with a leggy performance in weekend two, but might keep it from having the typical horror drop, and it should end up at around $22 million.




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And now to films that will actually benefit from Oscars. Hidden Figures has emerged as one of the big winners of this season, taking its rather low-key biopic to close to $100 million so far, along with three Oscar nominations. While it's a big long shot to win any of them, it's a high profile nominee and popular already, which should help it hold at around $13 million this weekend. La La Land, with 14 nominations is the potential jackpot winner, however, even as it has almost $100 million itself so far. Expanding significantly to over 3,100 venues, it should see a huge boost to the point where it may threaten for top spot this weekend. I'd say it falls short with around $15 million, but as an original musical, it's already beaten expectations by a huge, huge amount.

Elsewhere in returning films we have xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, who we will soon be waving goodbye to again. With just $20 million in its opening weekend, it's proven to be no Fast and Furious, and will drop to about $9 million this weekend. Animated film Sing crossed the $250 million mark mid week, and should see around $6 million for its strong run since Christmas.


Forecast: Weekend of January 27-29, 2017
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Split 3,199 +161 22.1
2 Resident Evil: The Final Chapter 3,104 New 17.3
3 La La Land 3,136 +1.271 14.8
4 Hidden Figures 3,351 -65 12.9
5 A Dog's Purpose 3,058 New 11.7
6 xXx: The Reutrn of Xander Cage 3,651 0 9.5
7 Sing 2,690 -593 6.2
8 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 2,049 -554 4.6
9 Gold 2,166 New 4.2
10 Monster Trucks 2,496 -613 3.5

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