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The other surprising BAFTA tidbit is that Tom Ford showed up yet again in the Director race for Nocturnal Animals. I’m not quite buying that the Academy is going to laud a fashion designer - they’re much more stuck up than all their counterparts combined - but clearly the industry does like the movie and so you can expect to see it with accolades across the technical races and maybe even that elusive Best Picture nod.

Finally, it did not go without notice that Denzel Washington was snubbed by BAFTA, which has never nominated him. It's a bizarre choice given that Washington was considered the only possible challenge to Casey Affleck, but that ship seems to have now sailed. Indeed, it is arguable that all four acting races are locked - and that this will be one of the most predictable years in a series of extremely predictable years.

What the Precursors Tell Us So Far

So, what does it all mean? In the chart below we compile the nominations that the major contenders have received from the most important precursor awards - from the Producers Guild, on to the Globes, and then the technical in this order: Editors, Cinematographers, Art Directors, Costume Designers, and then the National Board of Review and Critics Choice.

The early out of the gate of these later two diminishes them as precursors even more. Two months ago, Sully and Silence were considered serious contenders. Not so anymore. Both with the passage of time and box office, as well as the guilds speaking, we now know that it is Hidden Figures and Lion that are most likely in. Hell or High Water has maintained that sort of middle of the road lock to it, as has Arrival, whereas Fences and Hacksaw Ridge have tumbled a bit in the last goings.

Last year, we produced a similar table which precisely predicted the nominees that had over a 50% chance. It failed most miserably at predicting the nomination of Room, which got basically no precursor love whatsoever (unless you count the People’s Choice at TIFF) and landed not just a Best Picture but a Best Director nomination. Never forget a crowd pleaser.

But this year’s crowd pleaser is La La Land, and the only reason the table doesn’t have it in first place is because of that important SAG nomination. But, if you trust the methodology from last year, then there are eight movies that are in for the nomination, with Fences being well, right on the fence. So it may be another one of those eight nominee years. If you are looking for a ninth, or something to knock out the contenders, Hacksaw Ridge is certainly a good candidate. Deadpool is next in line but I give that really a zero chance. Really, it seems like Nocturnal Animals is the only realistic one to do so, given the aesthetic.

So, to sum up:

Clearly in: Moonlight, Manchester, La La Land
Likely in: Lion, Hidden Figures, Arrival, Hell or High Water
Toss-ups: Fences, Hacksaw Ridge
Hopeful Longshots: Deadpool, Captain Fantastic, Nocturnal Animals, Hail! Caesar
Likely Dead In the Water: Jackie, Sully, Loving, Silence

Up Next: Final Oscar Nominations Predictions!

Thoughts? Twitter: @jdonbirnam
Instagram: @awards_predix

2017 Oscar Guild Analysis

PGA

DGA

SAG

WGA

BAFTA

Globes

Editors

Cinemat.

Art Directors

Costumes

NBR

Critics

Weighted Probability

Manchester by the Sea

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

91.6%

Moonlight

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

91.6%

La La Land

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

82.4%

Lion

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

61.6%

Hidden Figures

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

59.1%

Arrival

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

59.1%

Hell or High Water

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

51.6%

Fences

X

X

X

X

X

50.8%

Hacksaw Ridge

X

X

X

X

X

X

44.1%

Deadpool

X

X

X

X

40%

Captain Fantastic

X

X

20.8%

Hail! Caesar

X

X

X

X

16.6%

Nocturnal Animals

X

X

X

15.8%

Loving

X

X

10.8%

Jackie

X

X

8.3%

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