They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
On the Eve of Oscar Nods
By J. Don Birnam
January 19, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
As you may know, this year the Academy pushed back the nominations date by a week to give voters more chance to view the potential nominees (in a supposed effort to expand the field of nominees). This will, in turn, give voters less time to view the actual nominees, the consequences of which we will discuss later. For now, the supposition is that the expanded voting period will give people more time and result in a more diverse slate.
I don’t buy it. They like what they like. And, in any case, this year the movies are already so diverse that it will be almost impossible - albeit a total whiteout by the Academy - to really test this theory.
Instead, let’s do what we did last year and see if we can derive some sort of correlation between what the Guilds have done and what the Academy may do.
The Ever Important Directors Guild
We know the big story of SAG this year, that it snubbed La La Land and is essentially the only nick in the train’s armor. But, fret not Chazelle lovers, the young director was recognized by his peers with a nomination at the DGA last week, one that, if he wins, means you can pretty much call the race over now.
Joining him were the directors of Moonlight (Barry Jenkins), Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan), Arrival (Denis Villeneuve), and, surprisingly, Lion (Garth Davis). Now, the DGA rarely matches the Oscars five for five, so it is likely that at least one of these gents will miss out - the branch may go for Denzel Washington or Mel Gibson, for example. But the nod here makes Lion an almost impossible lock for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars, at least combined with its PGA nod and its across the board support from the guilds.
The Brits Speak at BAFTA
Another important guild to speak in the last parts of stage two were the British. Yes, they showed some insularity by recognizing Ken Loach’s Cannes winner I, Daniel Blake with a nomination, but the other four should by now look familiar. It was the “Big Three” plus Arrival, which, with the PGA and DGA nod also seems mortally locked for a nomination. Indeed, the movie has strong, passionate support, which is indicative of a high chance at a nomination.
BAFTA was perhaps more interesting in the acting races. Aside from the usual suspects (Emma Stone, Amy Adams, Natalie Portman), we saw Meryl Streep and Emily Blunt reappear after they did so at SAG. When SAG did it, it was funny. But with the Brits doing it, now we are listening. Given that she’s a British actress, I’m still not buying it, but it does seem that Streep is in. This makes the impossibly tight Best Actress race even tighter, with four spots gone and only one left for Annette Bening, Isabelle Huppert, Ruth Negga, etc. to duke it out. The other possibility, of course, is that one of the main four misses out, but that will be impossible to predict.
The other surprising BAFTA tidbit is that Tom Ford showed up yet again in the Director race for Nocturnal Animals. I’m not quite buying that the Academy is going to laud a fashion designer - they’re much more stuck up than all their counterparts combined - but clearly the industry does like the movie and so you can expect to see it with accolades across the technical races and maybe even that elusive Best Picture nod.
Finally, it did not go without notice that Denzel Washington was snubbed by BAFTA, which has never nominated him. It's a bizarre choice given that Washington was considered the only possible challenge to Casey Affleck, but that ship seems to have now sailed. Indeed, it is arguable that all four acting races are locked - and that this will be one of the most predictable years in a series of extremely predictable years.
What the Precursors Tell Us So Far
So, what does it all mean? In the chart below we compile the nominations that the major contenders have received from the most important precursor awards - from the Producers Guild, on to the Globes, and then the technical in this order: Editors, Cinematographers, Art Directors, Costume Designers, and then the National Board of Review and Critics Choice.
The early out of the gate of these later two diminishes them as precursors even more. Two months ago, Sully and Silence were considered serious contenders. Not so anymore. Both with the passage of time and box office, as well as the guilds speaking, we now know that it is Hidden Figures and Lion that are most likely in. Hell or High Water has maintained that sort of middle of the road lock to it, as has Arrival, whereas Fences and Hacksaw Ridge have tumbled a bit in the last goings.
Last year, we produced a similar table which precisely predicted the nominees that had over a 50% chance. It failed most miserably at predicting the nomination of Room, which got basically no precursor love whatsoever (unless you count the People’s Choice at TIFF) and landed not just a Best Picture but a Best Director nomination. Never forget a crowd pleaser.
But this year’s crowd pleaser is La La Land, and the only reason the table doesn’t have it in first place is because of that important SAG nomination. But, if you trust the methodology from last year, then there are eight movies that are in for the nomination, with Fences being well, right on the fence. So it may be another one of those eight nominee years. If you are looking for a ninth, or something to knock out the contenders, Hacksaw Ridge is certainly a good candidate. Deadpool is next in line but I give that really a zero chance. Really, it seems like Nocturnal Animals is the only realistic one to do so, given the aesthetic.
So, to sum up:
Clearly in: Moonlight, Manchester, La La Land
Likely in: Lion, Hidden Figures, Arrival, Hell or High Water
Toss-ups: Fences, Hacksaw Ridge
Hopeful Longshots: Deadpool, Captain Fantastic, Nocturnal Animals, Hail! Caesar
Likely Dead In the Water: Jackie, Sully, Loving, Silence
Up Next: Final Oscar Nominations Predictions!
Thoughts? Twitter: @jdonbirnam
Instagram: @awards_predix