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Weekend Forecast for December 16-18, 2016

By Reagen Sulewski

December 16, 2016

Big damn heroes.

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Collateral Beauty attempts a kind of counter-programming with Will Smith in full maudlin “I HAVE FEELINGS!” mode that he enters every couple of years (see: The Pursuit of Happyness and Seven Pounds). In this one, he plays a tech CEO dealing with the death of his young daughter, by writing to the concepts of Love, Death and Time, who them show up in the persona of Keira Knightley, Jacob Latimore and Helen Mirren – and some screenwriter is very proud of himself for thinking up this concept.

Also starring Edward Norton, Kate Winslet and Michael Pena, it's a high profile Christmas time film with some Meaning, but as this genre is wont to do, it overreaches and becomes kind of laughable (what does that title even *mean*?). Reviews are... unkind to it, hammering its dime-store philosophy and grief mining, and this might be enough to sink the film, especially with other worthy prestige options out there. I'd expect just $11 million this weekend.

Expanding into wide release is Manchester by the Sea, another film along the same lines, but you know, good. Casey Affleck stars as a man who returns to the town he grew up in to take care of his nephew after the child's father dies. While there, he has to confront the issues that caused him to leave (not on the greatest terms) and then EMOTIONS! The third film from Kenneth Lonergan, who made the brilliant You Can Count On Me and then disappeared for ages before making the cult favorite (and famously studio mangled) Margaret, it's received a ton of Oscar buzz, with the film, Affleck and Michelle Williams all receiving lots of attention. Last weekend, it reached eighth spot in 368 venues and expands to 1,200 this weekend, jumping to about $6 miliion.




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Also expanding but not to wide release is La La Land, potentially the Best Picture frontrunner. A musical in love with musicals, it stars Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone as struggling performers in the LA jazz scene who escape into fantasy in the midst of a love affair. Earning an astounding $880 thousand in five venues last weekend, its jump to 200 this weekend should see it earn about $5 million.

Our main holdovers this weekend include Moana, with the Disney family film crossing the $150 million mark mid week. It's a solid bet to have a good run over the holidays, and should earn about $11 million this weekend.

Office Christmas Party just missed out on a weekend win in its debut with under $17 million. The raunchy and profane comedy probably isn't a big factor going forward but doesn't have much competition from other comedies and should grab another $10 million. Fantastic Beasts probably loses the most to the Star Wars film and drops to about $5 million.


Forecast: Weekend of December 16-18, 2016
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 4,157 New 145.6
2 Moana 3,587 -288 11.5
3 Collateral Beauty 3,028 New 11.2
4 Office Christmas Party 3,210 0 9.8
5 Manchester by the Sea 1,208 +840 6.2
6 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 3,036 -590 5.4
7 La La Land 200 +195 4.8
8 Arrival 2,157 -598 3.8
9 Nocturnal Animals 1,246 -16 2.8
10 Doctor Strange 1,930 -833 2.8

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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