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Weekend Forecast for November 23-27, 2016

Weekend Box Office Forecast for November 23-27, 2016

By Reagen Sulewski

November 23, 2016

If you're a demigod, make this movie earn a stupid crazy amount of money!

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Turning back to sequels we thought we probably wanted but maybe not really, Bad Santa 2 arrives this weekend, 13 years after Billy Bob Thornton broke all norms and mores as the alcoholic, profane department store Santa who was really planning a giant heist on Christmas. The movie took pride in wallowing in the worst impulses of his character (though couldn't quite resist trying to soften him), and has now brought him back in what amounts to a retread and an attempt to plumb new depths.

In addition to Thornton, Tony Cox as his “elf” assistant is back to help him stage the robbery of a Chicago charity at Christmas, run by a libidinous but noble Christina Hendricks. Thronton's thoroughly despicable mother, played by Kathy Bates, is also along for the ride, with Brett Kelly, the child Thornton took advantage of in the first film, also in the film as a grown man-child. Director Terry Zwigoff is gone, replaced by Mark Waters of Mean Girls (and Mr. Popper's Penguins) fame, which does not inspire a lot of confidence that it'll have the same bite to its satire. It's one of those “knows the words but not the music” things, and reviews are savaging this as tonally off in all respects, offensive without a redeeming element of hope of whimsy. This seems doomed to be ignored as there's really nothing one can point to as a laugh line in any of the trailers. I'd expect just $6 million over three days and $9 million over five.

A bit of an afterthought, Rules Don't Apply is Warren Beatty's first film in 15 years and his first directorial effort since 1998's Bulworth, a movie that I bring up for no reason now ha ha ha sigh. Anyway, it stars him as eccentric billionaire Howard Hughes, though he's really a side show to his driver (Alden Ehrenreich) and an actress (Lily Collins) and their gestating love affair under the difficult circumstances his employment creates.

More of a paean to Old Hollywood than anything else, it's a tough sell given that its biggest name is well past relevance and its true leads aren't really well known for much of anything just yet (it's about a year too early for Ehrenreich). This is one of those “Beatty pulled in one last card” deals, and it's a movie without much of an audience, about a subject not many will care about. I'd look for just $2 million over three days and $3 million over five.




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Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opened to an okay $75 million, but so much more was possible from a Harry Potter spinoff film. Time will tell if there's enough stamina here to justify the series that Warner Bros. has planned, but for now it should experience some pretty normal drops to about $39 million over three days.

Doctor Strange was taken out by the rival magic film, dropping nearly 60 percent in its third weekend, but is already in spitting distance of $200 million domestic and nearly $600 million internationally, meaning Disney and Marvel are playing with house money here – having turned yet another marginal character into a hit. For its fourth weekend, it should grab about $9 million.

Trolls, meanwhile, should fade away to Moana's opening weekend, falling to that same figure, with about $150 million in its sights as a final total. Arrival took a large hit after its opening weekend, and word-of-mouth ended up being too mixed to make much of a difference. Its Oscar chances remain strong, but not assured from this result, and it should earn about $7 million over the holiday weekend.


Forecast: Weekend of November 25-27, 2016
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Moana 3,875 New 60.5
2 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 4,144 No Change 38.8
3 Allied 3,160 New 14.4
4 Doctor Strange 3,008 -686 9.3
5 Trolls 3,322 -623 9.0
6 Arrival 2,442 +107 7.1
7 Bad Santa 2 2,920 New 6.4
8 Almost Christmas 1,769 -610 4.7
9 Hacksaw Ridge N/A N/A 4.0
10 The Edge of Seventeen 1,945 No Change 2.5

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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