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Weekend Forecast for July 1-3, 2016

By Reagen Sulewski

July 1, 2016

Oh, look. They're celebrating the holiday.

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So it's a bit of a survival horror film as Mitchell's character must run a gauntlet of attacks, both purposeful and accidental. Three films into this series, and The Purge is diving into an underbelly of America that's barely concealed and with the ascendancy of Trump, feels a bit too real to be funny or wink wink. Indeed, the film's ad campaign makes not so indirect reference to current events, in what's both a genius move, and a bit off-putting.

The second Purge movie dropped slightly from the first, to a $29 million opening, and the rather sadistic nature of these films is proving to be, like the Saw films, both its appeal and its potential downfall. The ugliness of the subject matter of this film might be a stumbling block to a breakout. Look for about $25 million this weekend.

Lastly, we have The Legend of Tarzan, another attempt at creating a franchise out of an easily adaptable literary adventure story, following The Jungle Book from earlier this year. Directed by David Yates (of late-series Harry Potter fame) and starring Alexander Skarsgård as the title character, it sees raised-by-apes Lord Greystoke living a comfortable life in London with his wife Jane (Margot Robbie) before being pressed into service as a trade emissary in the Congo. There, the evil Belgian (perhaps a first on screen?) mining magnate played by Christoph Waltz lures him into a trap and then it's CGI adventure for everyone.

While in principle I can understand why someone would try their hand at making a Tarzan franchise work, it's been proven multiple times of late that the appetite for these pulpy films has died out, or is at least on the wane. When the best result you can point to is King Kong, well, you're not in great company. What's worse is that with a $180 million reported budget, we could be in John Carter territory here – just a colossal misjudgment of audience tastes that could lead to job losses. International market anyone? Maybe. An out and out bomb is in store here, with a $17 million weekend.




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Thus, Finding Dory gets a third weekend at the top, with what is likely to be about a $45 million take. This will put it in shouting distance of the $400 million milestone, and the eventual all-time Pixar mark of $415 million set by Toy Story 3.

The disappointing summer of sequels claimed another victim, with Independence Day: Resurgence managing just $41 million last weekend, a full 50 percent lower than the original film's hyped-up holiday opening weekend in *1996*. More than just being “too late”, it was completely unnecessary and unwanted and targeted an audience that had long since forgotten or passed these kind of films by. A massive drop in weekend two should bring it to $15 million.

Following after that, we have Central Intelligence, due for about $10 million in weekend three, and horror/thriller The Shallows, which should find about $7 million in its second frame.


Forecast: Weekend of July 1-3, 2016
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Finding Dory 4,305 No Change 44.6
2 The BFG 3,357 New 27.5
3 The Purge: Election Year 2,796 New 25.0
4 The Legend of Tarzan 3,561 New 17.1
5 Independence Day: Resurgence 4,091 -39 14.8
6 Central Intelligence 3,166 -342 10.2
7 The Shallows 2,962 No change 7.6
8 Free State of Jones 2,781 -34 3.8
9 The Conjuring 2 2,008 -1,025 3.7
10 Now You See Me 2 1,788 -957 2.8

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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