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Weekend Forecast for April 29 - May 1, 2016

By David Mumpower

April 29, 2016

A (Method) Man and his kitten.

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The first time Marshall tried this sort of film, Valentine’s Day became a shocking hit, albeit a wildly frontloaded one. The film grossed $110.5 million, $56.3 million of that coming from opening day. Then, Marshall tried again, and that led to one of my favorite stories from my time with BOP. We got received a panicked message from a producer for a major cable news network. They wanted to know if I could have someone on-air in 90 minutes. Generally, we get like six days of notice for this sort of thing. They simply couldn’t find anyone to say nice things about New Year’s Eve as a movie. Their scheduled guests backed out once they saw the writing on the wall. It was that loathsome a project.

The box office bears this out. New Year’s Eve earned $54.5 million domestically against a budget of $56 million. The lone saving grace – and it wasn’t much of one – was that international consumers added another $87.5 million of revenue, enough to turn it into a box office draw of sorts. Mother’s Day is a cynical attempt to trade on the good names of Julia Roberts, Kate Hudson, and Jennifer Aniston. The idea is that the film will earn some money on opening weekend, and then it’ll get a bump next weekend, which is the titular holiday. Personally, I think audiences aren’t that stupid. I’m expecting a $12 million debut and a lot of remorse expressed by children foolish enough to take their mothers to this as a “special treat” next Sunday.

The final major new release this week is Ratchet & Clank. This animated film is based on the videogame franchise of the same name. While I’d like to claim expertise on the subject, I can’t. My wife purchased this game for the Playstation 2 a few weeks after it came out. We owned it for the body of a decade without ever taking the game out of its wrap, eventually selling it in an eBay purge a couple of years ago. The fact that we got anything back for a game that old speaks volumes about the passion some people have for the characters and concept.




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Still, this is an obscure animated movie without a wide base of fans to carry it to any sort of solid opening weekend. With 2,891 exhibitions, it somehow garnered more venue counts than Keanu, which should cause a lot of programmers to have some uncomfortable conversations with their bosses this weekend. Expect a $6 million weekend and a lot of puzzled looks if you ask any of your friends if they’ve seen Ratchet & Clank. They’ll probably wonder if it’s a 1970s detective show.

The number one film again this weekend will be Jungle Book, which will continue its unlikely ascent to $300 million worth of domestic box office. Another $37 million this weekend would represent a 40% fall in its third frame. We’re still in April, and we’ve already had two of the oddest (eventual) $300 million blockbusters in recent years.


Forecast: Weekend of April 29 - May 1, 2016
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 The Jungle Book 4,041 +13 37.0
2 Keanu 2,658 New 14.0
3 Mother's Day 3,035 New 12.0
4 The Huntsman: Winter's War 3,802 +11 6.8
5 Ratchet & Clank 2,891 New 6.0
6 Barbershop: The Next Cut 2,310 -366 5.8
7 Zootopia 2,487 -311 5.4
8 The Boss 2,818 -557 3.7
9 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 2,330 -736 3.3
10 Criminal 1,578 -1,105 1.6

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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