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Weekend Forecast for March 11-13, 2016

By Reagen Sulewski

March 11, 2016

Aw, it's family game night!

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While Cohen has managed a nice career in films where he's not the reason to see it – including appearing in two Best Picture nominated films – his comedy career in America consists basically of the legacy of Borat, and not much else. Bruno staggered to a deeply uncomfortable $60 million in box office following Borat's surprise success, while 2012's The Dictator offered a solid 40 minutes of humor and earned just slightly less. The Brothers Grimsby (released elsewhere simply as Grimsby, apparently in the notion that we in North America care more about films with familial ties in the title) seems a punishing ordeal, and hasn't even performed all that well in his native Britain. Most notorious recently for a gag about Donald Trump catching AIDS (I'm more offended by the lazy comedy than anything else), it's basically a dead film walking, and it has received basically no promotion on its release here. I'd look for just $8 million this weekend.

Another religious film arrives this week, as studios are seemingly in a contest to set a film across the entire chronological span of Jesus' existence. The Young Messiah (adapted from a book by Anne Rice!) follows Jesus as a seven-year-old boy on a journey from Egypt to Nazareth, in which he learns about his importance. A bit more straightforward religious parable than last month's Risen, it's likely to arrive with even less of an impact thanks to less studio support, many fewer screens and no real recognizable names. While a lush looking film, it's literally preaching to the choir and should find just $7 million this weekend.

Lastly, we have The Perfect Match, a film that I can barely believe is going into (semi) wide release. A romantic comedy/lifestyle porn film, it follows a young music agent who sleeps his way through a pile of models until his friends and family essentially dare him to find anyone he can be around for more than two dates. When he does, uh oh, it turns out the woman he chooses wants to hit it and quit it too. How the wheels of irony turn! Porn quality acting ensues, and lessons are learned by all in soft focus. I'd expect this to be good for about $2 million this weekend.




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This leaves Zootopia to win the weekend once again, following its dominating $75 million from last weekend. Disney's formulaic and yet at the same time kind of radical animated comedy about animals stepping in for human society captured not just the tyke market but also a bit of the grown-up market too with its bright animation and hints of mature humor. A decent holdover of $47 million is due here.

London Has Fallen was a pale imitation of its predecessor, Olympus Has Fallen, with just $21 million, about two-thirds of that film's start. The xenophobic and just plain ugly action film should deteriorate quickly, falling to about $9 million this frame.

Deadpool, while not exactly leggy, continues to rack up impressive box office amounts, and crossed the $300 million plateau last weekend. It seems on pace now for about $360 million, and should hit $9 million this weekend.


Forecast: Weekend of March 11-13, 2016
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Zootopia 3,827 No change 46.5
2 10 Cloverfield Lane 3,391 New 28.0
3 London Has Fallen 3,492 +2 9.6
4 Deadpool 3,331 -293 9.3
5 The Brothers Grimsby 2,235 New 8.7
6 The Young Messiah 1,761 New 7.6
7 Whiskey Tango Foxtrot 2,413 +39 4.5
8 Risen 2,095 -412 2.7
9 Gods of Egypt 2,306 -811 2.3
10 The Revenant 1,303 -185 2.3

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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