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Weekend Forecast for February 12-14, 2016

By Reagen Sulewski

February 12, 2016

Less hot than Deadpool.

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In the file of “sequels we didn't know we wanted, but, yeah, okay”, Zoolander 2 ranks pretty strongly. Not a tremendous hit on its original release (it was one of the films impacted by the 9/11 attacks), Zoolander has since grown in stature as one of the great dumb comedies. Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson, both a bit past their prettiest, return as Derek and Hansel, male models who find themselves in the middle of a conspiracy with only their very limited abilities to solve it. It helps that the man behind the plot to kill the world's most beautiful people is once again Mugatu, played by (the now comedy superstar) Will Ferrell. Penelope Cruz also joins the cast as a gorgeous Interpol agent assigned to harness their unique inabilities.

The angle of making fun of the relative uselessness of the fashion industry is a bit worn at this point, so it seems to be tackling the broader issue of celebrity culture, which has only gone deeper into the rabbit hole in the age of social media. And then, of course, there are the jokes about being dumb, which truthfully make up the lion's share of the film. Reviews are surprisingly bad, although that may not have much of an impact, as comedy sequels largely live on the reputation of the previous film. That's still strong, so there should be a decent opening weekend of about $22 million.




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Lastly, we have How To Be Single, the “real” Valentine's Day movie of the bunch, but which is also pitching away from that couples market and going for packs of single females. It stars Dakota Johnson (late of 50 Shades), Rebel Wilson, Alison Brie and Leslie Mann as a group of four friends at varying stages of life and struggling with modern romance. While there's a germ of an idea there, and every era does deserve to have its own notion of romance reflected back on it, How To Be Single seems to engage in the laziest stereotypes of any other rom-com and digs to the lowest common denominator for its jokes. Reviews are mediocre, and the ads have a vein of desperation that doesn't sell well. For that reason, and with a cast that, while made up of funny people, doesn't have a great track record in opening movies on their own terms, I'd look for about $12 million this weekend.

Kung Fu Panda 3 then, gives up its top spot at the box office with an only okay-ish $70 million so far. The odds of KFP 4 seem slim even with strong international box office, and it should earn about $12 million this weekend. The Coens' Hail, Caesar! took in a modest $11 million last weekend, not a tremendous amount for a George Clooney-led film, but middle of the pack for the Coens, and especially one of their quirky films. It should grab about $6 million this weekend, as their movies aren't particularly leggy. We also say goodbye to a couple of long term mainstays, as Star Wars and The Revenant both drop below $5 million and prepare to wrap up their runs (barring a Best Picture Oscar for Revenant).


Forecast: Weekend of February 12-14, 2016
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Deadpool 3,558 New 72.3
2 Zoolander 2 3,394 New 21.8
3 How To Be Single 3,343 New 12.7
4 Kung Fu Panda 3 3,844 -143 12.5
5 Hail, Caesar! 2,248 +16 6.4
6 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 1,810 -452 4.0
7 The Revenant 2,266 -752 3.8
8 The Choice 2,631 No change 3.7
9 Pride and Prejudice and Zombies 2,931 No change 2.1
10 Ride Along 2 1,562 -610 2.0

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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