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Weekend Forecast for February 5-7, 2016

By Reagen Sulewski

February 5, 2016

She was always meant to be a blonde bombshell.

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Lily James, late of the live action Cinderella, plays Elizabeth Bennet, in this iteration having grown up with the reality of a zombie plague (some variation on the Black Death) and as such, trained in all the deadly arts of the time, including how to separate a ghoul's head from its shoulders. Into this, an awkward romance with Mr. Darcy is inserted.

Digging into the subtext of Austen, pulling out the as-strong-as-it-could-be-for-the-time female empowerment message and making it an explicit “women can kick ass too!” text isn't a terrible idea on its face – but it's such a tonal shift between the old and the modern that it's hard to imagine any way that this can be enjoyed other than with an ironic smirk. It also faces an additional challenge that its the previous genre bender, Abraham Lincoln Vampire Hunter, didn't face – chewing up what is a beloved source material and shifting it to an audience that doesn't respect it in the first place. The Jane Austen connection will likely scare away horror audiences, and the overlap between Victorian novel fans and horror fans – while existent – is likely a pretty thin slice on the Venn Diagram. Ads are mostly met with befuddled stares or nervous laughter, which are never good signs, meaning that this is set to hit the Earth like a brick, opening to about $6 million.

Thus, Kentucky Fried Panda 3 gets to back its way into a second weekend atop the charts, after opening to an okay $41 million (hailed as the third-best January opening, as if DreamWorks was doing January a solid by plunking down here). That's still a bit of a fall-off from the $47 million of Kung Fu Panda 2, but which also had the typical sequel drop-off, and not the kid's film drop-off, meaning this should slide down to about $20 million this weekend.




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Oscar front-runner The Revenant had a decent holdover, dropping just 20 percent to $12 million and halting its slide, and with a good chance of breaking the $150 million barrier this weekend. I continue to find this to be one of the more unusual blockbusters in some time, and if it can manage a Best Picture win, $200 million is not out of the question. Give it $8 million for this weekend.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens will hit the $900 million mark early on Friday, though that is likely its last big milestone unless we start cutting those finer and finer. With a release to digital markets in April, the finality of its box office run is coming closer, and we can start to see the end game in a much clearer way – with somewhere between $925 and $930 million looking to be the end number. It should see $7 million this weekend.

Disaster movie The Finest Hours debuted to a soggy $10 million, and should sit at $6 million after the end of this frame, with a probable final total of just $35 million or so. Ride Along 2 may grab a spot above $5 million for this weekend, but it'll be close, with the rest of the holdovers sliding below that mark.


Forecast: Weekend of February 5-7, 2016
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Kung Fu Panda 3 3,987 +32 20.6
2 Hail, Caesar! 2,232 New 13.4
3 The Revenant 3,018 -302 8.7
4 The Choice 2,631 New 8.5
5 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 2,262 -294 7.5
6 Pride & Prejudice & Zombies 2,931 New 6.5
7 The Finest Hours 3,143 No change 5.2
8 Ride Along 2 2,168 -244 5.0
9 Dirty Grandpa 2,567 -345 4.0
10 The Boy 2,214 -457 3.5

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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