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Weekend Forecast for November 27-29, 2015

By Reagen Sulewski

November 25, 2015

What stories do dinosaurs tell around the campfire, anyway?

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Thankfully, it's not Stallone who's being asked to anchor the film. Jordan, who came to everyone's attention through Friday Night Lights, has proven to be relentlessly captivating even in the worst of situations (coughcough Fantastic Four). Even though I have some issues with the timeline of the series (any kid of Apollo has to be at least 31 and way too old to get into the boxing game), the match of concept and talent, including young director Ryan Coogler, is a potentially dynamic one. Unexpected raves are coming in for the film, including a final fight sequence shot in a single take. Perhaps it needs that jazzing up as the plot itself looks rather by-the-numbers. Of course, after the excesses of the past Rocky films, maybe that's just what's needed to get this series back to where it needed to be. 2006's Rocky Balboa pulled in a decent $12 million over a Christmas weekend, which comes with its own box office depressing factors, despite it being a questionable sequel. The ads for Creed are on point and emphasize the crucial aspects of the story and that, combined with the surprisingly strong reviews should put this on pace for a strong opening. The market for sports movies can be tough, but I expect this one to pick up some pace as it heads into the weekend, and open to around $27 million.

Filed under “I Can See What You Were Going For There, But...”, Victor Frankenstein opens on Wednesday, presumably to cavernous, echoing rooms. Fox's take on the Frankenstein monster legend is a semi-humorous interpretation of the subject, with James McAvoy playing the famed doctor obsessed with bringing the dead back to life, and in a bit of spectacular stunt casting, Daniel Radcliffe as his (non-humpbacked) assistant Igor. As directed by Paul McGuigan, it's a very noisy-looking, tongue-in-cheek mess, hitting all of the details from every other Frankenstein movie ever made. In essence, nothing you've never seen before.

In some ways, it’s quite like something you have specifically seen before – the 2004 version of Van Helsing, which tried to soup up the monster-hunter portion of the Dracula story and also starred another member of the X-Men franchise. In theory, we're a lot more savvy about these old-timey horror adaptations (but then again, Dracula Untold...) so that film's $51 million opening is way, way, way (way) out of the question. Really what's going to sink this film is its spectacularly scattershot tone, where it's not clear if we're supposed to be excited, or scared, or laughing, or... Essentially this film fails the simplest test of a movie's advertising, in that it doesn't tell its audience what kind of film they're going to get. I'd expect a significant flop here, with an opening weekend of just $7 million.




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Expanding into sort of wide release is Spotlight, perhaps this year's top contender for the Best Picture Oscar. A look into the investigative reporting done by the Boston Globe on the molestation scandal in the Catholic Church, it's a star-studded prestige picture that has garnered tons of praise from all the right groups. Directed by Tom McCarthy of The Visitor and, uh, The Cobbler... it stars Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Liev Schreiber, Rachel McAdams, John Slattery and Stanley Tucci amongst others. In limited release, this certainly non-feelgood-film-of-the-year has put up some solid numbers, cracking the top ten last weekend with $3.5 million in just under 600 venues. In its expansion, look for about $5 million this weekend.

It's strange to start sounding the death knell for a $100 million film, but here we are – The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 continued the slide of the previous entry, losing one-full third of the opening weekend of Catching Fire. In some ways, this is classic sequel behavior – like way, way classic – but not what studios expect now, and the management of this property will be quite the case study in a couple of years. This has also not been a particularly leggy series, and this last film will probably be the worst for that, dropping to about $44 million this weekend.

Other Thanksgiving leftovers are slim pickings, with Spectre limping home to about $8 million and The Peanuts Movie grabbing about the same, picking up what's left over from Pixar. The Night Before may pick up some business from young adults who literally can't stand to be around their families anymore, but should hit a maximum of about $6 million.


Forecast: Weekend of November 27-29, 2015
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 The Good Dinosaur 3,749 New 62.4
2 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 4,174 No Change 44.7
3 Creed 3,404 New 27.0
4 Spectre 2,940 -719 8.7
5 The Peanuts Movie 3,089 -582 8.0
6 Victor Frankenstein 2,797 New 7.4
7 The Night Before 2,960 No change 5.4
8 Spotlight N/A N/A 5.0
9 Brooklyn 845 +734 4.4
10 Secret in Their Eyes N/A N/A 3.9

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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