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Weekend Forecast for September 18-20, 2015

By Reagen Sulewski

September 18, 2015

You mean to tell me this is *not* the 76th annual Hunger Games?

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Opening in a relatively unique fashion, Everest ties up most of the IMAX screens in the country this weekend, and just those screens, in a soft rollout. Starring Jason Clarke, who Hollywood is insistent will be a thing, dammit, it details the true story of an expedition to the top of the world's tallest mountain that led to disaster after being hit by a snowstorm. Story-wise, it's cliche city, with all the perilous mishaps and mistakes that you'd expect – basically putting The Perfect Storm on a mountain – but it's the visuals that are expected to carry the day, especially if you like looking at pictures of snow and people freezing to death.

Few films get a rave first and foremost for their cinematography without it being something of a backhanded compliment. In this case, though, it seems to be mostly the reason the film was made, so there's that, for whatever that's worth. Strangely, the rest of the cast seems to be deemphasized as a selling point, when it includes Josh Brolin, Jake Gyllenhaal, Emily Watson, Robin Wright and Keira freaking Knightley, but we are dealing with a fairly narrowly focused film in the first place.

The last notable film to take this release route was Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, which pulled in about $12 million at Christmastime 2011 on a few less screens than Everest is getting. This is no Mission: Impossible film, but then again, that was a troubled franchise at that point. I'd look for this to have a solid opening on this many screens of about $6 million.




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Yet another faith-themed film opens this weekend, albeit with some studio backing. Captive stars a methed-out Kate Mara as a woman taken hostage by escaped murderer David Oyelowo, whom she ends up talking down during a SWAT standoff. Looking more like an infomercial for the book The Purpose Driven Life, it's a film with little ad support, and only moderately positive reviews. A very talky film by nature, in just a national release, it's likely to hit only about the $3 million mark this weekend.

Both The Perfect Guy and The Visit surprised in their debuts last weekend, hitting about $25 million each. The former did indeed hit the same audience that powered No Good Deed, almost to the dollar, and shows that adult-focused thrillers can find an audience. That these films have almost been marketed like horror films seems significant. I'd expect this to drop to about $13 million this weekend. The Visit should fall even further, with reviews and word-of-mouth that are decidedly split. Horror as a rule doesn't hold well, so this should drop down to about $11 million this frame.


Forecast: Weekend of September 18-20, 2015
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials 3,791 New 36.1
2 Black Mass 3,188 New 23.4
3 The Perfect Guy 2,228 +7 12.6
4 The Visit 3,148 +79 11.0
5 Everest 546 New 6.5
6 War Room 1,945 +298 4.7
7 A Walk in the Woods 2,150 +11 2.9
8 Captive 806 New 2.8
9 Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation 2,202 -448 2.6
10 Straight Outta Compton 1,931 -881 2.3

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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