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Weekend Forecast for July 31 - August 2, 2015

By Reagen Sulewski

July 31, 2015

You'll notice that no one really wants to be that close to Chevy.

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The quality of the M:I films seem to be slowly winning people over, and reviews for this film are about as strong as any action film out there that isn't Mad Max. Comparisons with Ghost Protocol are pretty much impossible thanks to that film's wacky roll out, but looking to its $209 million final figure is illustrative. I'd look for a weekend of about $52 million here.

Vacation reaches back to the heady days of 1984 to follow in the footsteps – but notably, not to reboot them – of the Chevy Chase hit, which spawned one good sequel, one OK sequel and one terrible one. Hey, they're bound to strike gold again sometime, right? Ed Helms takes over the pater familias role – but as Rusty, not Clark (dudes, Anthony Michael Hall was *right* there), embarking on a family vacation of his own to WalleyWorld, with all the mishaps and wacky shenanigans that entails. I'd mention other cast members here, but I'm probably doing them a favor by keeping them out of it.

A fair bit has been made about what seems like a cruel and gross take on the material, but let's not forget some of the things that happened in the first film (dead grandma, urine sandwiches, dragged dog). Sure, the raw sewage bath is a bit far over the top, but still in general keeping with the tone of the series, sad as that is to say. The problem comes with the fact that the film is apparently just not that funny, which is a particular death knell for comedies. Reviews are hammering it, and the Wednesday opening figure does not bode well. With just under $4 million, it did win its first day, but will head towards a $19 million opening weekend.

Leading our left behind films is probably still Ant-Man, which held off the barely-trying Pixels for a win by $900,000. Although it's definitely proving to be a step backwards box-office wise, it should still come in with about $150 million domestic, and probably about as much internationally. Call it a not-miss. Look for about $11 million this frame.




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The aforementioned Pixels should slump hard, with few reviews rising above a “you could do worse." Adam Sandler is rapidly shedding fans, and the turn to Netflix, where his numbers are much less subject to public scrutiny couldn't come at a better time. Look for about $9 million this weekend.

Meanwhile, Minions has not been able to hang on to its results after a hot start, and has dropped over 80 percent in two weeks. What could have been a $350 or $400 million performance is looking more like a $300 to $325 total. Perhaps that's to be expected with such a pre-sold audience, but it's a bitter pill for Universal to swallow compared to their expectations. Give it about $11 million this weekend.

Amy Schumer's Trainwreck held up OK but not fantastically, pulling in $17 million in its second weekend, and should end up in the $100-110 million range for a final figure. Look for about $10 million here. Southpaw debuted a little stronger than expected with $16 million, surprisingly beating out the apparently not so rabid John Green fanbase for Paper Towns, which garnered only $12 million. Still great for a little film, but compared to Fault in our Stars, it's a dramatic drop back. Give Southpaw $9 million, and Paper Towns about $5 million as it sheds viewers rapidly.


Forecast: Weekend of July 31-August 2, 2015
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation 3,956 New 52.1
2 Vacation 3,411 New 19.5
3 Ant-Man 3,322 -546 11.7
4 Minions 3,568 -498 11.0
5 Pixels 3,723 0 9.6
6 Southpaw 2,772 0 9.0
7 Paper Towns 3,031 0 5.4
8 Inside Out 1,904 -813 4.8
9 Jurassic World 1,895 -750 4.6
10 Mr. Holmes 901 +215 3.0

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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