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Weekend Forecast for July 24-26, 2015

By Reagen Sulewski

July 24, 2015

He's got Pac-Man fever!

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In the young adult lit world, there is John Green, and there is everyone else. The writer of The Fault in Our Stars, as well as the book this week's Paper Towns is based on, has tapped into a rich vein of teen angst that he has smelted down into an ore and... look, I don't quite know where I'm going with this metaphor, let's just say he seems to have clung well to what teens desire and talk about. Last June, Stars was something of a sensation, with its tragic romance between two teens diagnosed with cancer, opening to nearly $50 million. Paper Towns doesn't quite have that following, but is a film that can't be dismissed regardless of that.

Nat Wolff (who had a supporting role in Stars) plays a young wallflower who falls into the orbit of an enigmatic and charismatic manic pixie dream girl (current It Girl Cara Delevingne), who then promptly disappears mysteriously. Tracking her down through what seems to be a series of clever clues, this leads him to undertake a road-trip adventure that makes it The Best Summar Evar. This is, essentially, The Perks of Being a Wallflower with a bigger ad budget and a built-in audience for the author. It's also been timed for a release with VidCon, an online video con established by one... John Green. Anyway, good luck getting a ticket for this movie in Anaheim this weekend. While not having quite the following as Stars, Paper Towns should find its way to around $22 million this weekend.

Southpaw seems like an experiment to see if a film could be constructed entirely of cliches and still garner some form of acclaim. Jake Gyllenhaal stars as a boxer who, after a hotheaded move, gets suspended and has to start from scratch again. Then, tragedy strikes his family and he finds a wise old trainer to fix him, not just in body but in mind. Yada yada yada, lessons are learned.

Also starring Rachel McAdams, Forest Whitaker, 50 Cent, directed by Antoine Fuqua and written by Kurt Sutter of Sons of Anarchy fame, it looks to have a similar appeal to 2011's Warrior, which was a minor hit. Gyllenhaal has shown himself to have a solid draw in these gritty films, including End of Watch and Prisoners, but this seems to be falling on the lower end of his scale. I'd expect about $12 million here.




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Returning films are led by Ant-Man, which pulled off a win at $57 million, albeit a figure that was quite below expectations. This may have finally been the bridge too far for Marvel fans, although this is also a film that shouldn't have worked in any respect, so kudos to Marvel there. While word-of-mouth is solid, I'd look for a significant drop anyway, to around $28 million.

Universal's Minions ran out of steam fairly quickly, losing almost 60 percent of its business, albeit still crossing $200 million domestic. One huge benefit it has going for it is its easy packaging for international markets, where it's already earned $400 million. In its third weekend, it should pull in about $26 million.

Trainwreck was a mild surprise with $30 million, and launching the film career of Amy Schumer. When Harry Met Sally with the genders reversed, its got a solid chance for some legs, and should slide in with about $21 million this frame.

This summer's real hits are still hanging around, with Inside Out and Jurassic World set to earn about $7 million each this weekend. For the latter film, it's still within striking distance of Titanic's $658 million, and should pass by The Avengers' $623 million this weekend.


Forecast: Weekend of July 24-26, 2015
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Pixels 3,723 New 32.4
2 Ant-Man 3,868 +12 27.8
3 Minions 4,062 -249 26.5
4 Paper Towns 3,031 New 22.4
5 Trainwreck 3,171 +13 20.9
6 Southpaw 2,772 New 11.8
7 Inside Out 2,717 -546 7.2
8 Jurassic World 2,646 -475 7.0
9 Terminator Genisys N/A N/A 2.6
10 Mr. Holmes 684 +323 2.5

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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