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Weekend Forecast for July 10-12, 2015

By Reagen Sulewski

July 9, 2015

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Adding to this hoary old plot, we have the found footage element to drop on top of it, making it something like Final Destination meets Paranormal Activity (and for good reason, since it shares producers with that latter film). A largely unknown cast doesn't help or hurt this film but with terrible reviews, I'd say we're looking at diehard horror fans only. 2015 has not been a great year for the genre, with only Insidious 3 breaking $50 million domestic, although with as cheap as these films are, they are still guaranteed profit machines even at this level. I'd expect a very modest $8 million this weekend.

Finally, we have Self/less, the latest from Tarsem Singh, a frequent creator of beautiful nonsense. Ben Kingsley plays an extremely wealthy man who on his deathbed, plans for an experimental procedure to be transferred into the body of a younger, healthy man (Ryan Reynolds). After waking up, questions start to arise about who this person was, and where they might have obtained a spare body (wait, *after* this you have questions?).

What starts out as a potentially thought provoking sci-fi premise about the nature of identity falls into the Hollywood trap and becomes an action thriller, though you'll forgive me if I don't place a lot of confidence in the action thriller credentials of the director of Mirror Mirror and The Cell (yes, yes, and Immortals, but I don't think that boosts his case). Although Reynolds has proven himself to have charisma and draw in the right role, he's got quite a number of bombs on his resume that make him largely a non-factor here. With little ad support and terrible reviews, this looks to be quickly forgotten other than the inspiration for a million Slash/title jokes and should open to around $5 million.




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Inside Out managed after the final analysis to capture top spot last weekend by about $500,000, leaving it out of contention to be the answer to an obscure box office trivia question (highest grossing film never to reach #1 for the weekend). It's currently on pace to become Pixar's second highest grossing film (in between Finding Nemo and Toy Story 3) although it's got a bit of work to do to ensure that. This weekend will probably be critical to that end, with anything over $16 million being a positive development.

Meanwhile, despite failing to win a fourth weekend, Jurassic World still moved to fourth all-time at the box office, now sitting in the $570 million area. It should be touch and go as far as hitting second overall and breaking Titanic's $658 million, which is a development I think no one expected even a month ago. Look for about $15 million here.

Last week's new films both fell flat, though to differing levels – Terminator Genisys opening to just $27 million, while Magic Mike XXL cratered at $13 million. Both are potential franchise killers, though only the first likely leads to a money loss. International takes make help out Schwarzenegger's attempt at going down memory lane but I'd still expect just $12 million for it this weekend.

Magic Mike may rewrite the definition of front-loaded, though, with over a third of its five-day weekend total coming from its Wednesday opening. On a meager $15 million budget, this is still a win monetarily, but goes to show the double edged sword of a targeted release. I'd expect just $5 million this weekend.


Forecast: Weekend of July 10-12, 2015
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Minions N/A New 123.1
2 Inside Out N/A N/A 16.5
3 Jurassic World N/A N/A 15.3
4 Terminator: Genisys N/A N/A 12.6
5 The Gallows N/A New 7.8
6 Self/Less N/A New 5.5
7 Magic Mike XXL N/A N/A 5.2
8 Ted 2 N/A N/A 4.6
9 Spy N/A N/A 4.0
10 Max N/A N/A 3.8

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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