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Weekend Forecast for April 24-26, 2015

By Reagen Sulewski

April 24, 2015

I dunno... I'm pretty sure you're not Khaleesi.

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Little Boy has an approach to faith that I have a hard time accepting that true believers actually embrace, turning religion into a wish-granting genie, not to mention taking a borderline-offensive approach to the war and its ultimate end (there was something else around that time called Little Boy and don't think that this film isn't going there). Add in an overly cutesy tone and it feels like a film without a constituency, and should open to around $3 million.

Expanding to around 1,200 venues is Ex Machina, a buzzed-about sci-fi film from Alex Garland, writer of 28 Days Later and The Beach and the first 90 per cent of Sunshine before the last bit was lost to a hard drive crash and reconstructed by a random plot generator (at least that's the theory I like to go with). It stars Oscar Isaac as an inventor who creates an artificial intelligence and puts it into a lady robot (Alicia Vikander). Domhnall Gleeson is a young programmer selected to evaluate the program and determine how close he's achieved to true A.I. ... with sexy results.

Halfway between sci-fi and a psychological thriller, Garland's film has attracted a lot of buzz and acclaim as a smart take on a technological issue and its social implications. I'm reminded here most of Moon, although that film never got above 250 venues or so, while Ex Machina nearly got into the top 10 in just 39 venues. While this is still a “builder,” it's definitely a film that's set to catch some attention of the wider public. Ex Machina should earn about $5 million this weekend.

This leaves the box office to Furious 7 once again, even as it continues its precipitous fall. Its third weekend saw it earn $29 million, down over 80% from its debut just two weeks ago. Those of you quick on the draw with math will realize that this still means it's an enormous earner, with over $300 million in the bank domestically, which is just a small part of its billion plus international take, a number it has earned at a record pace. Go back 10 years and make that prediction and see how fast you get committed. Now in its fourth weekend, it should pull in about $15 million.




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In a merciful world, the Paul Blart sequel would not only have not been released, anyone suggesting such a thing would be placed away from where they could harm us further. We don't live in that world, and its $23 million opening weekend stands as a mark against us as a society. Hope could be found in its inevitable crash to earth, perhaps to around $8 million. We can make this happen, people!

Also likely to crash is Unfriended, thanks to its heavily front-loaded genre. The innovative yet also insipid horror film, shown entirely on a computer screen through social media, debuted to $15 million but carries a fickle audience. It should fall to about $6 million.

Lastly in terms of relevance, we have Home, the surprise modest hit for DreamWorks Animation that's headed for about $160 million domestic. It should hit around $6 million this weekend as well.


Forecast: Weekend of April 24-26, 2015
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Furious 7 3,806 -158 14.8
2 The Age of Adeline 2,991 New 11.3
3 Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 3,633 No change 8.5
4 Unfriended 2,774 +35 6.7
5 Home 3,311 -177 6.0
6 Ex Machina N/A N/A 4.8
7 The Longest Ride 3,140 -241 4.4
8 Get Hard 2,276 -379 3.1
9 Little Boy 1,045 New 2.8
10 Woman in Gold 1,981 -30 2.8

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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