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4. Mike

According to Rodney, Mike isn’t trustworthy because he goes to church and hasn’t had sex in eight years. In other words, Mike’s pretty trustworthy. Also, judging by his tears after losing the reward challenge, Mike is really into turtles.

Mike got some points from me last episode for his excellent mocking of Rodney’s suggestion to throw a challenge in interview, and also going along with it to protect his own partner and control the vote. But I think he’s in a bad position for this week – he’s obviously the leader of the Blue Collar alliance, he’s a huge target and he doesn’t seriously have anything to offer a flipper better than “You’re #6”. If he’s still in the game after the vote, it’s because other players think he has an idol. Which he doesn’t.

5. Tyler

Tyler is the one who could shake up my No Collars + White Collars > Blue Collars scenario. He could team up with the No Collars and Carolyn to Pagong the Blue Collars, or he could flip over to the Blue Collars – most of whom he has spent the last few days with - and run with them. However, he’s in a tough spot either way. If he joins the Blue Collars, he’s certain to be #6 on an alliance of six. And if he joins with the No Collars + Carolyn, he could easily find himself in the same position.

Tyler’s first post-merge job will be to see where he stands with Carolyn. They have been in an alliance since the first episode, when Carolyn showed him her hidden immunity idol, but things could easily have changed since they were on separate tribes and she flipped against Max and Shirin. On balance, I think they’ll stick together. Outnumbered by the No Collars, Carolyn needs an alliance partner as much as Tyler does, and getting rid of Max was probably in Tyler’s game plan as much as it was in Carolyn’s.

6. Hali

Hali is the one who makes nice with Shirin. “They said you did some annoying things, too.” Ha ha, nice use of the word “they.” Hali is really under the radar. If she’s successful at building good relationships behind the scenes, things could work out for her in the end-game, but she would need to be on a jury without any power players.

7. Sierra

Last week, everyone wanted Sierra to vote with them and it makes her sick. Rodney makes her sick. Dan makes her sick. Being used by the Blue Collars makes her sick. I think she has decided that an alliance with Joe is her best move – or at least, I think it is her best move. It would get her in with the No Collars, and later in the game she would be an extra vote against the White Collars in the game – which would probably get her as far as #4. But even if Sierra flips and makes it to the end, she will still have to face a jury with four sad Blue Collars with hurt feelings.

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