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BOP is pleased to welcome you to the 14th annual Twelve Days of Box Office. Yes, my favorite time on the movie calendar has arrived. An argument could be made that this is technically day four, but the unique calendar configuration of Christmas on Thursday slightly tightens the key revenue period.

If this is your first time reading this series, the premise is simple. The end of the year represents the best time for Hollywood…unless you have pissed off North Korea. Since the x-factor in the box office performance of all movies is the free time consumers have to watch a film, the holiday season represents the best opportunity for one and all. As has been noted in this forum many times, it is the purest box office example of a rising tide lifting all boats.

With all films affected, the composite result is that starting with yesterday’s box office, every title in release will experience weekdays akin to a Saturday result. And yes, Saturday will experience a better result than normal. The only exceptions will occur on Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve.

These holidays are not only travel days for many people but also ones for which consumer free time is limited. People have plans for Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve celebrations that will be performed in lieu of going to the movies. Since the x-factor of free time is reduced, box office revenue does not expand. Interestingly, Christmas Day and New Year’s Day are not similarly impacted. People are still inclined to spend at least a portion of these holidays at the movies.

The other important guideline is that past performance is indicative of future results. In this instance, I mean that previous historical behavior is closely modeled by current year box office. Specifically, the best indicators for holiday box office behavior for Christmas and New Year’s Day occurring on Thursday are past years when the same calendar configuration occurred. As such, 2008 will be our main determinant in projecting box office behavior for 2014 releases.

If all of the above sounds a bit dry, that is completely understandable. It will all make a lot more sense once you have witnessed the behavior over a few days. Today, we are going to focus on the important topics of the moment, which are last weekend’s releases.

On Monday, the number one movie in North America was once again The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. After grossing $89.1 million during its first five weeks of release, The Hobbit-est grossed almost exactly $9 million yesterday. That number alone is a great example of what is about to transpire.

Peter Jackson’s opus grossed $16.8 million on Sunday. During an ordinary week, it should fall somewhere in the range of 60-65% on Monday. The obvious reason is that most people are off on Sunday while they go back to work on Monday. Ergo, box office drops with people less able to attend a film. Yesterday, box office did not decline as much as normal, because a lot of people take the entire week of vacation. Those who do not will lead to further increases in box office later in the week when the holiday itself occurs.

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