The Twelve Days of Box Office: Day One
By David Mumpower
December 23, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
If this is your first time reading this series, the premise is simple. The end of the year represents the best time for Hollywood…unless you have pissed off North Korea. Since the x-factor in the box office performance of all movies is the free time consumers have to watch a film, the holiday season represents the best opportunity for one and all. As has been noted in this forum many times, it is the purest box office example of a rising tide lifting all boats.
With all films affected, the composite result is that starting with yesterday’s box office, every title in release will experience weekdays akin to a Saturday result. And yes, Saturday will experience a better result than normal. The only exceptions will occur on Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve.
These holidays are not only travel days for many people but also ones for which consumer free time is limited. People have plans for Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve celebrations that will be performed in lieu of going to the movies. Since the x-factor of free time is reduced, box office revenue does not expand. Interestingly, Christmas Day and New Year’s Day are not similarly impacted. People are still inclined to spend at least a portion of these holidays at the movies.
The other important guideline is that past performance is indicative of future results. In this instance, I mean that previous historical behavior is closely modeled by current year box office. Specifically, the best indicators for holiday box office behavior for Christmas and New Year’s Day occurring on Thursday are past years when the same calendar configuration occurred. As such, 2008 will be our main determinant in projecting box office behavior for 2014 releases.
If all of the above sounds a bit dry, that is completely understandable. It will all make a lot more sense once you have witnessed the behavior over a few days. Today, we are going to focus on the important topics of the moment, which are last weekend’s releases.
On Monday, the number one movie in North America was once again The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. After grossing $89.1 million during its first five weeks of release, The Hobbit-est grossed almost exactly $9 million yesterday. That number alone is a great example of what is about to transpire.
Peter Jackson’s opus grossed $16.8 million on Sunday. During an ordinary week, it should fall somewhere in the range of 60-65% on Monday. The obvious reason is that most people are off on Sunday while they go back to work on Monday. Ergo, box office drops with people less able to attend a film. Yesterday, box office did not decline as much as normal, because a lot of people take the entire week of vacation. Those who do not will lead to further increases in box office later in the week when the holiday itself occurs.
With $98.1 million in the bank after six days, The Hobbit Ever After is slightly ahead of the pace of Desolation of Smaug. The fifth Lord of the Rings flick had garnered $91 million by this point. It bears noting that Smaug debuted a week earlier, and that does make a difference with regards to actual performance. In other words, The Battle of the Five Armies is not receiving the end of the franchise bump Warner Bros. may have hoped for.
The good news is that a lot can change in a few days. To wit, Avatar had grossed only $126 million after six days. While not a direct calendar comparison (its Christmas Day occurred on a Friday), it does demonstrate how much a strong Twelve Days of Box Office performance can elevate a title in a short period of time.
Along those lines, the other new films from last weekend actually held even better on Monday. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb fell only 30% from $4.9 million on Sunday to $3.4 million yesterday. It has a four-day total of $20.5 million, which is fairly disappointing. Two weeks from now, we may be describing it differently.
Annie behaved similarly, dropping 29% from $4.5 million Sunday to $3.2 million yesterday. With $19.1 million in the bank, it is running neck and neck with Night at the Museum, which is fairly impressive. While a remake, it does not have the awareness or built-in popularity of Night at the Museum. If anything, its existence feels a bit superfluous.
While there are other big releases to discuss later in the week, the final film I want to discuss is The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1. While the latest franchise title has taken a step back from Catching Fire, it grossed another $1.7 million Monday, good enough for fourth place, relegating Exodus: Gods and Kings to fifth place in the process.
The most recent Hunger Games movie has now earned $291.1 million after 32 days. Catching Fire had already accumulated $374 million by that point. What we will be tracking is whether the third film can make up any of that ground. Over its next 12 days, Catching Fire grossed $31.6 million.
Let’s track whether Mockingjay – Part 1 beats that total thanks to the magic of the holidays. It is currently playing from behind, because Catching Fire earned $2.3 million on its 32nd day, $600,000 more than the most recent release.
Okay, those are the facts as we know at the start of the 12 Days of Box Office. On a site note, I will be keeping a regular schedule tomorrow and Wednesday. Thursday is a travel day, as I head to Illinois to visit my wife’s family. That update may be late or even delayed a day. If you are wondering about Top Film Industry Stories, we will start to publish those next Monday, December 29th. As always, thank you for reading BOP.