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Weekend Forecast for November 28-30, 2014

By Reagen Sulewski

November 26, 2014

They never should have left their natural habitat.

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Attempting to get revenge, they kidnap Waltz's son (Chris Pine) in a scheme that of course goes horribly awry, or else there wouldn't be a movie. Much of the first film was based around their inept attempts at blackmail and criminal activity, and this film seems to follow much of the same pattern. It even brings back one of the film's best stealth comedy moments with Jamie Foxx as [Expletive Deleted] Jones.

The big concern here is Hangover Syndrome, where a surprise comedy hit follows its first script so closely for the sequel that all life is dragged out of it. That typically sets in on the second weekend, though, so with Horrible Bosses 2 at least appearing on the surface to have a couple of new tricks up its sleeve, it should be fine at least to start. That it's been handed over to an entirely new set of director/writers isn't a great sign, but it's not as if Seth Gordon to Sean Anders is some great earth-shaking move. “Who?” and “Wha?” you say, and you're right. I expect an opening weekend of about $31 million, and $40 million over the holiday period.

This means that Katniss and company get another weekend to run in first place, even if its $122 million opening weekend ranks as a disappointment and boy aren't we spoiled about things. Reception to Mockingjay Part 1 has been fairly brutal, and the film's table setting nature is in part responsible for the $30 million fall off in opening weekend, as well as what appears to be a bit of a backlash against splitting films.




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While this has undoubtedly affected the bottom line of this particular installment, maybe knocking as much as $100 million off its total, it has also affected the potential earnings of the conclusion of the series, and that is possibly the more important story here. A weak sequel can kneecap a franchise, and this is a lesson that many YA adaptations could stand to learn, to say nothing of films like The Hobbit, or, if we had a time machine, The Matrix, which saw its third film eviscerated by poor word-of-mouth. Since it's already a front-loaded sequel, this could mean a rather precipitous drop is in store, to around $57 million over three days, and $71 million over five.

Big Hero 6 finds its family demographic impinged slightly by the Penguins this weekend, although it shouldn't have that big of an impact on a Holiday weekend, in which time is less of a factor in movie-going. After you're finished trampling your neighbors for a $4 crockpot, go see a movie! See two, even! Disney's superhero film should pass the $150 million milestone easily, with about $13 million over three days.

Following behind it is Interstellar, which is holding up well to criticism, with a little over $120 million in the bank. Watch for it to earn around $9 million over the weekend, on its way to around $175 million total.

Dumb and Dumber To took a significant header, possibly causing brain damage, to $14 million after a $36 million start. This is not a recoverable position, and even with the benefit of holidays, this film is going to crash. Even if Horrible Bosses 2 isn't great, it's better than this, so go see that instead. Give it $6 million.


Forecast: Weekend of November 28-30, 2014
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 N/A N/A 57.5
2 Penguins of Madagascar 3,600 New 44.2
3 Horrible Bosses 2 3,300 New 31.0
4 Big Hero 6 N/A N/A 13.4
5 Interstellar N/A N/A 9.6
6 Dumb and Dumber To N/A N/A 6.3
7 The Theory of Everything 802 +662 4.3
8 Gone Girl N/A N/A 2.0
9 Birdman N/A N/A 1.4
10 St. Vincent N/A N/A 1.2

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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