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Weekend Forecast for October 31-November 2, 2014

By Reagen Sulewski

October 31, 2014

He's going for the Academy Award for Creepiest Actor.

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On some level, of course, these twisty films can just be exhausting, as the plots can usually be defeated with “...and that's when someone stopped being mysterious for no reason and it was all a bit of a misunderstanding." A bit too clever for its own good, in other words, and without the critical support to back it up. With a cast that no one is really clamoring to see, we should get around a $5 million opening weekend.

While there is one horror film out there already, Lionsgate is attempting to milk one last bit of relevancy out of its catalog with a 10th anniversary re-release of Saw. And now you feel old. This seems like a really wrong-headed move on a couple of levels – with the horror audience moving away from this kind of torture porn of late, this feels like a forced attempt at nostalgia far too soon. Additionally, and you may not remember this, but Saw was in fact a terrible, amateurly filmed horror flick, and should really hold no re-watchability unless it's to marvel that Cary Elwes continues to get acting gigs. Re-releases are rarely that lucrative in the first place, and this should see only about $3 million this frame.

This brings us to this week's holdovers, led by, in all likelihood, John Wick. Keanu Reeves' return to respectability in box office, it came from an unlikely source – a straight-up action flick, as his title character cuts through an entire mafia to avenge a murdered pet. Yeah, you read that right. It opened to just under $14 million, but following last winter's dismal failure of 47 Ronin (that's a lot of Ronin!) the notion that a Reeves-led action film could hit these modest heights might have been seen as fantasy. I see this as the rare somewhat-leggy action film with around $9 million this weekend.

Ouija likely exhausted most of its audience last weekend with its $19 million, and should see a huge drop-off even with/because of the Halloween weekend (as has been previously discussed, Halloween night is actually a terrible night for horror movies, for obvious reasons). Produced for the Hollywood equivalent of pocket change, this is still a wildly profitable movie even with a drop to $8 million this frame.




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In a tale of two Oscar Hopefuls, Fury is sitting with around $50 million in the bank, while Gone Girl is sitting with $125 million plus (after a couple of extra weekends, but...). Both are likely to earn a similar $7 million this weekend. Money isn't everything when it comes to Oscars, but it's a big part of it, and particularly when big stars are involved. Things don't look so great for the WWII tank drama, but the literary adaptation is looking to be in prime position.

Family films continue to be handled by The Book Of Life, sitting right where a number of other stop-motion animated films have, and aiming for a $60-70 million final domestic total. Animation has matured somewhat as a genre, and these alternative offerings are giving us a number of robust family options. It should earn about $6 million this frame.

Rounding up this week's notables, we have St. Vincent, Bill Murray's latest curmudgeonly dramedy and Alexander and the Something Something Bad Day, each earning about $5 million. Murray's film is a bit of a triumph for what could be a very off-putting performance, and may throw him in as a dark horse Oscar candidate should this develop any kind of legs.


Forecast: Weekend of October 31-November 2, 2014
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Nightcrawler 2,766 New 16.6
2 John Wick 2,589 0 9.7
3 Ouija 2,899 +1 8.8
4 Fury 3,313 +140 7.6
5 Gone Girl 2,834 -272 7.3
6 The Book of Life 2,714 -319 6.5
7 Before I Go To Sleep 1,902 New 5.5
8 St.Vincent 2,552 -270 5.4
9 Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day 2,896 -221 5.0
10 Saw 2,063 New 3.2

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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