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Weekend Forecast for October 10-12, 2014

By Reagen Sulewski

October 10, 2014

You just stand there in the rain and think about what you did.

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But really, what's going to keep Alexander from having a great weekend is limited popularity of the source material and the squeeze of age. Reviews are just OK, and that's maybe what could have really helped it to it out. I'd give it $15 million this weekend.

Dracula Untold is the latest attempt to do a gothic-action reimagining of a classic horror character, depicting the theoretical origins of Vlad the Impaler and the circumstances behind him becoming the great and terrible Dracula of legend. Luke Evans stars in the title role, starting as a noble leader pushed to the brink in defending his people. After taking a pact with dark forces, he gains the power to turn into a swarm of bats and cut a destructive swatch through his enemies. Listen, it'd be really unnerving, OK? The drawbacks: a constant need to drink blood and a frightening tendency towards terrorizing everyone around him.

Pitched as a super-heroish origin story as Universal attempts to Avengers-up its roster of classic horror properties, Dracula Untold has some decent looking effects, but an utterly ridiculous plot and poor reviews. It's clearly hoping to be something of a blend between 300 and Snow White and the Huntsman, but it has neither the star power nor the track record of either of those to lean on. This looks to be headed for just $13 million in its debut.




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The race for last weekend's box office crown was unexpectedly close, with David Fincher's Gone Girl eking out a win by less than half a million over a creepy doll horror movie. In some ways I judge us all. Gone Girl's second weekend should be quite interesting, in that it has some challenging elements to viewers and word-of-mouth that ranges from rapturous to disgusted and boring. Divisive films rarely get the leggy treatment, and Oscar contender that it is, it should still drop to around $19 million this frame.

Leggy horror, on the other hand, is rarely seen in the best of circumstances, unless it's a Paranormal Activity, sneak-up-on-everyone situation. So despite spinning off successfully from The Conjuring, it should see a pretty steep drop to around $15 million from its $37 million start. This is of course a crazily successful number for a horror film with a ridiculous concept starring no one, so maybe I should just shut up already.

Following in behind these films are The Equalizer, which should pull in about $10 million as it heads to around $110 million total, The Boxtrolls, which is proving to be a leggy family option and should grab about $8 million and The Maze Runner, which should hit about $7 million this frame.


Forecast: Weekend of October 10-13, 2014
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Gone Girl N/A N/A 19.3
2 The Judge N/A New 17.4
3 Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day N/A New 15.7
4 Annabelle N/A N/A 15.4
5 Dracula Untold N/A New 13.6
6 The Equalizer N/A N/A 10.4
7 The Boxtrolls N/A N/A 8.2
8 The Maze Runner N/A N/A 7.4
9 Left Behind N/A N/A 2.5
10 This Is Where I Leave You N/A N/A 2.3

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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