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David Mumpower: To my mind, blaming piracy is akin to blaming the weather. The people who know how to pirate movies and choose to do so are not likely consumers for low rent fare such as The Expendables 3 anyway. I am inclined to believe that 2.2 million people stole the movie off the internet. If we believe that even a quarter of them may have watched the movie in the theater, a number I consider WILDLY optimistic, we would be discussing $4.4 million in total revenue during the entire run of The Expendables 3. Realistically, it's probably less than a million in box office lost due to piracy.

Instead, the issue is the obvious one Edwin discussed. The first movie was terrible. The second movie was terrible. If the maxim is fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, what is the exit quote for fool me three times?

If anything, I am reminded of that old mail scam where a person would mail a thousand letters claiming they never miss with NFL predictions. Every letter includes the same pick. The second week, they mail to the five hundred they got right, bragging about their success and picking the same team five hundred times. The third week, they have 250 marks then 125 after a month. The Expendables franchise is that same scam for the movie industry. They lost half after the first one then another half after the second one. The only reason a third one was released was because of overseas earning potential. A fourth domestic release probably earns less than $10 million, barring something unforeseen. Even the dullest consumers eventually learn their lesson.*

* = except when Michael Bay is involved

Kim Hollis: Rather than attribute the decline of The Expendables audience to piracy, I think it’s a continuation of a trend we’ve been seeing for a little while now. One of the BOP stories of 2013 was the decline of the aging action star, where we saw movies from Sylvester Stallone, Bruce Willis and Arnold Schwarzenegger all struggle at the box office. You’ve basically got the same guys rounded up for The Expendables, and the problem you have is that people like Jason Statham, Jet Li, Mel Gibson and especially Kelsey Grammer don’t have much to add in terms of audience attraction. When you combine that with the fact that a third film in the series really doesn’t have much new or unique to offer to audiences, you can hear the tolling of the death knell. The only old guy audiences seem to care about is Liam Neeson, and I figure his shelf life is limited now as well.

Max Braden: This number really surprises me despite some basic objective analysis about the reasons for it. I really don't think the internet leak had any significant effect on the opening weekend attendance. The portion of the movie-going audiences who are sophisticated or motivated enough to download the leaked movie must be small, and even then might be interested enough to go see it on the big screen anyway. Some could claim that support for shoot-em-up action movies has fallen away in favor of comic book movies, but 2 Guns opened to $27 million in early August last year. The Bourne Legacy was a $38 million August opening two years ago. It just seems that these stars can't pull in the viewers. Outside the Expendables franchise, Jason Statham hasn't led a $15+ million opening weekend since 2005 with Transporter 2. Stallone's heavily violent sequel Rambo opened to $18 million in 2008, which was his best action opening weekend since the 1980s. I'd suggest that this series isn't a traditional action movie, but fits more in a smaller nostalgic niche featuring a cast of older actors showing that they've still got it: Grudge Match, Last Vegas, Stand Up Guys, The Crew, and Space Cowboys are all examples over the years. The Oceans 11, 12, and 13 series features a similarly large cast, but I think they managed to maintain their high-30s opening weekends because the comedy (and lack of violence) was able to appeal to a broader audience. I can't imagine that it makes any sense to make The Expendables 4... but still, as a fan, I'd watch that one too.

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