Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
August 19, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Brett Ballard-Beach: I don't give much credence to any significant impact that the pirating might have had. The franchise had slipped a lot between 1 and 2 and all the added stars in the aging action world weren't going to reverse that trend here, particularly with a PG-13 rating, which renders all that machismo "impotent,” particularly since the ridiculously over the top limb snapping and gore popping accounted for much of what the first two films had in the way to recommend them.
Bruce Hall: I'm sure it had some effect, but I don't know that there's any way to definitively quantify how much. More germane to this disaster is the fact that this style of action flick has seen its day. The first Expendables was an amusing novelty (an over the top, R-rated action film starring box office macho men 20 years out of their prime?) that surprised everyone with its success, particularly overseas.
And it’s that overseas performance that continues to drive the franchise forward. The sequel boasted a higher budget but suffered domestically as American audiences seemed to tire of watching elderly action stars mug their way through an utterly impotent script. But internationally, the movie destroyed.
But even that trend may be in danger now, with a $15 million overseas debut for Expendables 3. Still, when all is said and done, the movie stands a good chance of being profitable. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of more sequels, so if this bothers you, I suggest going off the grid now. Word is, Stallone's next project is Rambo 5. I doubt you'll want to be around for that.
Edwin Davies: The leak probably had an impact, and I imagine the studio will try to pin this failure solely on piracy rather than the series' rapid decline from film, but at most it merely accentuated a failure that probably would have happened anyway. (Some reports I read prior to the weekend claimed that most of the downloads were from people outside of America, so if it had an impact it might be more noticeable in the international numbers than in the domestic ones.) In any case, I think that the problems were much deeper rooted than piracy.
The first Expendables did good business but wasn't a very good film, a fact that was reflected in the weaker performance of its even worse sequel. That compounded the disappointment and disinterest of the people who showed up the first time, and greatly reduced the number of people who would bother to show up for the third go-round, especially once it was announced that the film would be PG-13, effectively removing the gratuitous violence that had been the appeal of the previous films. Rather than broadening the audience - how many 13-year-olds care who Sylvester Stallone is anyway? - it shrank it. Everyone involved in this boondoggle burned the audience twice already, then decided to thumb their nose at them for good measure. Turns out that is not a terribly good strategy.
It remains to be seen whether audiences overseas are as bored with the The Expendables as America is, but I think the best case scenario here is that the international numbers cover the loss. Still, I'd be surprised if they're strong enough to justify a fourth film in a series whose appeal is waning as its cast is growing. Then again, this has been an incredibly weird summer, so we'll have to wait and see.
David Mumpower: To my mind, blaming piracy is akin to blaming the weather. The people who know how to pirate movies and choose to do so are not likely consumers for low rent fare such as The Expendables 3 anyway. I am inclined to believe that 2.2 million people stole the movie off the internet. If we believe that even a quarter of them may have watched the movie in the theater, a number I consider WILDLY optimistic, we would be discussing $4.4 million in total revenue during the entire run of The Expendables 3. Realistically, it's probably less than a million in box office lost due to piracy.
Instead, the issue is the obvious one Edwin discussed. The first movie was terrible. The second movie was terrible. If the maxim is fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, what is the exit quote for fool me three times?
If anything, I am reminded of that old mail scam where a person would mail a thousand letters claiming they never miss with NFL predictions. Every letter includes the same pick. The second week, they mail to the five hundred they got right, bragging about their success and picking the same team five hundred times. The third week, they have 250 marks then 125 after a month. The Expendables franchise is that same scam for the movie industry. They lost half after the first one then another half after the second one. The only reason a third one was released was because of overseas earning potential. A fourth domestic release probably earns less than $10 million, barring something unforeseen. Even the dullest consumers eventually learn their lesson.*
* = except when Michael Bay is involved
Kim Hollis: Rather than attribute the decline of The Expendables audience to piracy, I think it’s a continuation of a trend we’ve been seeing for a little while now. One of the BOP stories of 2013 was the decline of the aging action star, where we saw movies from Sylvester Stallone, Bruce Willis and Arnold Schwarzenegger all struggle at the box office. You’ve basically got the same guys rounded up for The Expendables, and the problem you have is that people like Jason Statham, Jet Li, Mel Gibson and especially Kelsey Grammer don’t have much to add in terms of audience attraction. When you combine that with the fact that a third film in the series really doesn’t have much new or unique to offer to audiences, you can hear the tolling of the death knell. The only old guy audiences seem to care about is Liam Neeson, and I figure his shelf life is limited now as well.
Max Braden: This number really surprises me despite some basic objective analysis about the reasons for it. I really don't think the internet leak had any significant effect on the opening weekend attendance. The portion of the movie-going audiences who are sophisticated or motivated enough to download the leaked movie must be small, and even then might be interested enough to go see it on the big screen anyway. Some could claim that support for shoot-em-up action movies has fallen away in favor of comic book movies, but 2 Guns opened to $27 million in early August last year. The Bourne Legacy was a $38 million August opening two years ago. It just seems that these stars can't pull in the viewers. Outside the Expendables franchise, Jason Statham hasn't led a $15+ million opening weekend since 2005 with Transporter 2. Stallone's heavily violent sequel Rambo opened to $18 million in 2008, which was his best action opening weekend since the 1980s. I'd suggest that this series isn't a traditional action movie, but fits more in a smaller nostalgic niche featuring a cast of older actors showing that they've still got it: Grudge Match, Last Vegas, Stand Up Guys, The Crew, and Space Cowboys are all examples over the years. The Oceans 11, 12, and 13 series features a similarly large cast, but I think they managed to maintain their high-30s opening weekends because the comedy (and lack of violence) was able to appeal to a broader audience. I can't imagine that it makes any sense to make The Expendables 4... but still, as a fan, I'd watch that one too.