Daily Box Office Analysis

By David Mumpower

July 17, 2014

We swear that we will win back every dollar of your financial investment.

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Perhaps you believe Moms’ Night Out is a dud since it has grossed a modest $10.4 million. Buzz! Not so fast, contestant number one. The budget for the film is only $5 million. Is it wildly profitable after negative cost factors? I would say no; still, it is far from a loser. In fact, all involved are probably mostly satisfied with its outcome.

Earlier this summer, I joked about the movies with Million(s) in the title providing false advertising with their names. That still makes me laugh, but Million Dollar Arm has grossed a lackluster $35.6 million against a $25 million production. Disney is probably not thrilled with the result. They are not losing any sleep over it either. A Million Ways to Die in the West should be the causation for many, many firings. I say that due to the quality of the film rather than its box office, though. The $40 million production has grossed $42.7 million domestically alongside $40 million internationally. It is probably in the black already, and that makes me sad.

At least Adam Sandler’s movie bombed, right? Weeeeeell. Blended has grossed $93.6 million worldwide, $44.8 million of which was accumulated in North America. Its production budget was only $45 million. It too is either in the black or close enough that it will earn a lot of money for Warner Bros. during its home video phase.

Let’s try something more recent. Earth to Echo and Deliver Us from Evil seemed like terrible performers on opening weekend. Neither title crossed the $10 million threshold. After only 15 days in release, however, Earth to Echo is already sitting pretty with $27.9 million in box office against a frugal $13 million budget. Deliver Us from Evil is not doing as well due to its $30 million financial outlay. With $27.2 million already in the bank, it is still going to be either a box office winner or a draw by the time it exits theaters.




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Looking at the above data, the conclusion is simple. Six of the seven perceived box office duds of the summer are either in the black already or close enough that they are at worst a draw as they prepare to exit theaters. So, our issue is not that this summer is loaded with failures. Yes, some of these titles suffer grievously in terms of opportunity cost because they are not very good movies. Good movies clearly do better at the box office these days. That is still not the primary issue, though.

In 11 summer weeks, only 22 titles have been released wide. That is only a pair per week on average. Almost half of those releases have been modest productions that by nature have lesser box office ambitions. Titles such as Blended and A Million Ways to Die in the West fall into a different category as major studio releases that should have done better yet did not bomb in any way save for relative to expectations. And those titles are counterbalanced by Neighbors and 22 Jump Street, both of which exceeded even the loftiest box office estimates during their domestic runs.

The other problem occurs on the top side. The number one film of the summer may not gross $250 million domestically. It will depend on the legs of Transformers: Age of Extinction and/or the ability of a movie yet to debut to surprise. If neither of those things occurs, the number one film of the summer of 2014 will be historically low for the 2000s. Consider that Monsters University is widely believed to be a huge disappointment. Its final domestic tally of $268.5 million would make it the number one movie of 2014 to date. As always, everything is relative in box office evaluation.

The summer box office campaign has been stifled because there have not been enough releases on the lower end of the spectrum. And it has been damaged by the lack of true blockbusters on the upper end. The explanations for this behavior are a topic for next week. For now, you have a better understanding of why no one studio is upset by the BIG SUMMER SLUMP of 2014. None of them has really been burned because the only true bomb of the season, Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return, was distributed by Clarius Entertainment rather than a major studio.


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