Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
July 17, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
On Wednesday, Dawn of the Planets earned $6.7 million. In the process, it fell 31%, which was the steepest decline of any title within the top ten. There is nothing alarming about this fact. Instead, it reflects the dominance of the latest evolutionary war movie. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes finished within $800,000 of out-grossing the rest of the top 10 in combination. Films that dominant oftentimes experience roller coaster rides with regards to daily box office. What matters most right now is that the film currently sits at $97.2 million. It will have crossed the $100 million mark by the time you read this column.
With nothing else exciting occurring in the top ten, let’s take this opportunity to evaluate the infamous summer box office slump being discussed ad nauseam. During the last slump in 2005, there was simply no denying the fact that alarmists had a strong point. The $56.1 million debut of Fantastic Four felt like an oasis magically appearing in the desert that July. Nine years later, the situation is mathematically worse, at least on the surface. What lies beneath is a slightly different tale.
The summer box office campaign unofficially begins during the first week of May. Assuming I am counting right (nobody’s perfect), there have been 21 wide releases during that timeframe. Here is the list: The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Neighbors, Moms’ Night Out, Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return, Godzilla, Million Dollar Arm, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Blended, Maleficent, A Million Ways to Die in the West, The Fault in Our Stars, Edge of Tomorrow, 22 Jump Street, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Think Like a Man 2, Jersey Boys, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Tammy, Deliver Us from Evil, Earth to Echo and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. I will also include Chef, which crept up to 1,298 locations at one point during its release.
Looking at the list above, I am confident you have zeroed in on a few films that you believe are hurting the overall picture. The fact that investors were willing to pony up $70 million for Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return makes me question the sanity of everyone involved. Overall, the picture painted above is not bleak on an individual basis, though. BOP has much harsher criteria for the profitability of movies than most. We frequently point out that there is not a one to one ratio in terms of domestic revenue relative to international revenue. The latter is harder to recoup for reasons both obvious and insidious. Let’s use more general criteria to determine the losers this summer then we will circle back to BOP’s methodology.
Perhaps you believe Moms’ Night Out is a dud since it has grossed a modest $10.4 million. Buzz! Not so fast, contestant number one. The budget for the film is only $5 million. Is it wildly profitable after negative cost factors? I would say no; still, it is far from a loser. In fact, all involved are probably mostly satisfied with its outcome.
Earlier this summer, I joked about the movies with Million(s) in the title providing false advertising with their names. That still makes me laugh, but Million Dollar Arm has grossed a lackluster $35.6 million against a $25 million production. Disney is probably not thrilled with the result. They are not losing any sleep over it either. A Million Ways to Die in the West should be the causation for many, many firings. I say that due to the quality of the film rather than its box office, though. The $40 million production has grossed $42.7 million domestically alongside $40 million internationally. It is probably in the black already, and that makes me sad.
At least Adam Sandler’s movie bombed, right? Weeeeeell. Blended has grossed $93.6 million worldwide, $44.8 million of which was accumulated in North America. Its production budget was only $45 million. It too is either in the black or close enough that it will earn a lot of money for Warner Bros. during its home video phase.
Let’s try something more recent. Earth to Echo and Deliver Us from Evil seemed like terrible performers on opening weekend. Neither title crossed the $10 million threshold. After only 15 days in release, however, Earth to Echo is already sitting pretty with $27.9 million in box office against a frugal $13 million budget. Deliver Us from Evil is not doing as well due to its $30 million financial outlay. With $27.2 million already in the bank, it is still going to be either a box office winner or a draw by the time it exits theaters.
Looking at the above data, the conclusion is simple. Six of the seven perceived box office duds of the summer are either in the black already or close enough that they are at worst a draw as they prepare to exit theaters. So, our issue is not that this summer is loaded with failures. Yes, some of these titles suffer grievously in terms of opportunity cost because they are not very good movies. Good movies clearly do better at the box office these days. That is still not the primary issue, though.
In 11 summer weeks, only 22 titles have been released wide. That is only a pair per week on average. Almost half of those releases have been modest productions that by nature have lesser box office ambitions. Titles such as Blended and A Million Ways to Die in the West fall into a different category as major studio releases that should have done better yet did not bomb in any way save for relative to expectations. And those titles are counterbalanced by Neighbors and 22 Jump Street, both of which exceeded even the loftiest box office estimates during their domestic runs.
The other problem occurs on the top side. The number one film of the summer may not gross $250 million domestically. It will depend on the legs of Transformers: Age of Extinction and/or the ability of a movie yet to debut to surprise. If neither of those things occurs, the number one film of the summer of 2014 will be historically low for the 2000s. Consider that Monsters University is widely believed to be a huge disappointment. Its final domestic tally of $268.5 million would make it the number one movie of 2014 to date. As always, everything is relative in box office evaluation.
The summer box office campaign has been stifled because there have not been enough releases on the lower end of the spectrum. And it has been damaged by the lack of true blockbusters on the upper end. The explanations for this behavior are a topic for next week. For now, you have a better understanding of why no one studio is upset by the BIG SUMMER SLUMP of 2014. None of them has really been burned because the only true bomb of the season, Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return, was distributed by Clarius Entertainment rather than a major studio.