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Weekend Forecast

By David Mumpower

July 2, 2014

She's part of a Thriller flash mob.

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Tammy could very well bomb this weekend. I am well aware that this is a distinct possibility. Still, I expect a similar situation to Along Came Polly, a 2004 “comedy” whose very existence sullies the memory of the late, truly great Philip Seymour Hoffman. In that film, his role was largely that of a shirtless, hairy dude constantly covered in flop sweat. He also fell down a lot. In fact, that was his primary responsibility in the film. It was the price he paid in order to have a number one movie that wound up earning $88 million against a $42 million budget. And he is one of the greatest actors of our generation.

Actors willingly choose these roles and when they do, customers do support them if the project looks funny. Tammy does not at all, at least in my opinion. Even so, I believe it is headed toward a five-day total in the range of $42 million. We have no one to blame but ourselves for this twisted eventuality. I preferred earlier in the summer when good movies were performing the best at the box office.

Deliver Us from Evil is the first major horror film to be released in over two months. That is an eternity of a gap in this day and age, as genre flicks like this are cheap efforts that almost always provide solid return on investment. Absence may make the heart grow fonder for teenagers already getting bored by their summer free time. It is another title using the “based on real events” tag, although it features an oddly precise wording. This particular feature is “inspired by the actual accounts of an NYPD sergeant.”




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Unlike the overwhelming majority of horror movies, there are legitimate celebrities in this project, beginning with Eric Bana. The star presumably woke up every morning wondering how he went from frontlining a Steven Spielberg movie to a psychological horror drama. Then again, since Munich came out in 2005, the average person attending this film would have been around 10-years-old back then. Meanwhile, Olivia Munn is still a staple of G4 re-runs, making her a recognizable face for the demographic. And Joel McHale of Community fame also appeals to the demographic. Because of the players involved, I am cautiously optimistic about its prospects. I project a $22 million five-day total for Deliver Us from Evil.

Earth to Echo somehow appeals to an even younger demographic than the film likely to edge it out for second place among openers this weekend. The film aspires to be another Super 8, but it will probably fall into the category of batteries Not Included and Small Soldiers instead. Earth to Echo does seem to provide imagination during a weekend sadly lacking in such creativity (read: Transformium). It is also currently 54% fresh, which is almost exactly the combined total of the two releases I project ahead of it. So, I would like to extend my thanks to Relativity Media on that count. I believe there are enough children out there hungry for a live action film to boost Earth to Echo to an $18 million total in five days. It should have the opposite trajectory of Deliver Us from Evil in that it should grow stronger on Saturday and Sunday whereas the horror flick should die quickly.

Finally, there is a movie named America released this weekend. If you care about it, you already know everything about it. If you do not, I envy your ignorance of the subject matter. Suffice to say that the weird guy who capitalized on a polarized political culture with 2016: Obama’s America has made another film. Since his last one grossed $33.3 million, America cannot be dismissed out of hand. The odds of a second polemic performing so well are not good, though. I suspect that there will be about $10 million worth of interest from the same people who just got Eric Cantor voted out of office. I also look forward to the same guy’s inevitable movie about Hilary Clinton ruining the world, conveniently timed for release in the summer of 2016. Let’s all pretend to be surprised when it’s announced, though.


Forecast: Weekend of July 4-6, 2014
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Transformers: Age of Extinction 4,233 No Change 46.0
2 Tammy 3,465 New 30.0
3 Deliver Us from Evil 3,045 New 16.5
4 Earth to Echo 3,230 New 13.5
5 22 Jump Street N/A N/A 9.4
6 How to Train Your Dragon 2 N/A N/A 8.9
7 America 1,105 +1,102 6.7
8 Maleficent N/A N/A 5.9
9 Jersey Boys N/A N/A 4.5
10 Think Like a Man Too N/A N/A 4.3

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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