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I used a projection above for 22 Jump Street involving day 12h to final domestic take of the original film. The same calculation for How to Train Your Dragon 2 would indicate a North American tally of $219.2 million, almost matching 22 Jump Street. Those of you who believe that this is a reasonable expectation, please put your hands in the air. There should be no hands raised in the air in the entire world, unless you are currently at a sporting event celebrating an unrelated situation.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 obviously will not match the pace of the first film for the reason mentioned above. Sequels burn brighter and faster then they fade away quicker. That is the nature of the beast. Plus, the first film was one of the earliest demonstrations of the power of 3D in terms of extending holdover appeal. That initial crush North Americans had toward 3D is long since gone. Oversaturation of the product ruined it for everyone. This sequel will be lucky to reach $175 million at its current pace, which would still be solid, just less than even the most negative of analysts projected.

The final topic of discussion today is Think Like a Man Too. The third place film yesterday earned $2.6 million, a 3% increase from $2.4 million. This reminds me that whenever you see numbers that you recognize do not add up, remember that there is rounding involved. The precise numbers for Monday and Tuesday were $2,559,902 and $2,475,300 according to studio estimates. We carry them to one significant digit at BOP because folks have asked us to dial down the math whenever possible. Given our proclivities toward the abstract, that is a reasonable request we try to honor.

The second Think Like a Man project (and how unlikely a sentence is that?) has grossed $34.3 million in five days, which is fabulous for a $24 million production. In comparison to the first film, it is 12% behind that title’s $39 million over the same timeframe. That film was also quite leggy, so I am dubious that the sequel can maintain its pace. If it did, we would be discussing a final domestic take of $80 million. Realistically, the low to mid-$70s is the likely landing spot for this very profitable venture.

Rounding out the top five yesterday were Maleficent with $2.3 million and Jersey Boys with $1.9 million. The films increased 32% and 31% respectively from Monday, two of the strongest improvements within the top 10. These two films along with How to Train Your Dragon 2 are the key reasons why combined box office for the top ten spiked 26% to $20.6 million. And in case you were wondering, the “action” at the bottom of the top ten involved Chef, which knocked A Million Ways to Die in the West out of the tenth spot. The difference between the films’ Tuesday box office was, I kid you not, $4,508.

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