Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
June 25, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The number one movie in North America for the 10th time in 12 days is 22 Jump Street. Is that a coincidence? I say no. My thought process is simple. Ten plus 12 equals twenty two. It’s airtight logic, numerologists! Yes, we are not even out of June yet and I am already getting punchy about repetitive box office numbers. Save us, Shia LaBeouf Mark Wahlberg, you’re our only hope!
22 Jump Street grossed $4.5 million yesterday, an increase of 23% from Monday. That is a 39% fall from last Tuesday on the heels of a 47% Monday to Monday depreciation rate. Stating the obvious, 22 Jump Street has legs. It has a running total of $118 million after 12 days. It is pacing 59% ahead of 21 Jump Street, which had earned $74.3 million after its first dozen days. That movie did not reach $118 million until day 30 so the sequel continues to steamroll its pace.
If 22 Jump Street maintains the same day 12 to final box office ratio as the first film, we would be discussing a domestic take of $220 million. Sequels ostensibly die faster; ergo, that may be an ambitious result. Since 22 Jump Street is obliterating 21 Jump Street, I cannot rule it out, though. Suffice to say that a Clone High movie is now more than simply a fevered dream, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller fans!
I will use a lot of the same analysis with our second place film yesterday, How to Train Your Dragon 2. After doing so, I think you will understand why I am so gloomy about its situation. The Viking sequel to the best movie of 2010 (you heard me) grossed $4.3 million yesterday. In the process, it narrowly missed sneaking back into first place for the first time since June 15th, its third day in theaters as well as only day in first place thus far.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 increased 39% from Monday while dropping only 27% from last Tuesday. That is also significant improvement from the Monday-to-Monday fall of 38% mentioned in yesterday’s column. Its running total of $102 million means that it is the 16th release of the year to cross the $100 million mark. For comparison, there were only 35 for all of 2013. This year is shaping up to be a phenomenal one in terms of box office depth.
In terms of how the second film compares to the first, the mood turns somber. After 12 days in release, How to Train Your Dragon had earned $101.2 million. That film actually earned $9.1 million on its second Monday/Tuesday interval whereas the latest one managed only $7.5 million. And that is even worse than it sounds. There have been four years of ticket price inflation, especially for 3D cinema. Also, the first film’s second batch of weekdays occurred in April as opposed to summer. The sequel could fall behind the the original as soon as close of business today.
I used a projection above for 22 Jump Street involving day 12h to final domestic take of the original film. The same calculation for How to Train Your Dragon 2 would indicate a North American tally of $219.2 million, almost matching 22 Jump Street. Those of you who believe that this is a reasonable expectation, please put your hands in the air. There should be no hands raised in the air in the entire world, unless you are currently at a sporting event celebrating an unrelated situation.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 obviously will not match the pace of the first film for the reason mentioned above. Sequels burn brighter and faster then they fade away quicker. That is the nature of the beast. Plus, the first film was one of the earliest demonstrations of the power of 3D in terms of extending holdover appeal. That initial crush North Americans had toward 3D is long since gone. Oversaturation of the product ruined it for everyone. This sequel will be lucky to reach $175 million at its current pace, which would still be solid, just less than even the most negative of analysts projected.
The final topic of discussion today is Think Like a Man Too. The third place film yesterday earned $2.6 million, a 3% increase from $2.4 million. This reminds me that whenever you see numbers that you recognize do not add up, remember that there is rounding involved. The precise numbers for Monday and Tuesday were $2,559,902 and $2,475,300 according to studio estimates. We carry them to one significant digit at BOP because folks have asked us to dial down the math whenever possible. Given our proclivities toward the abstract, that is a reasonable request we try to honor.
The second Think Like a Man project (and how unlikely a sentence is that?) has grossed $34.3 million in five days, which is fabulous for a $24 million production. In comparison to the first film, it is 12% behind that title’s $39 million over the same timeframe. That film was also quite leggy, so I am dubious that the sequel can maintain its pace. If it did, we would be discussing a final domestic take of $80 million. Realistically, the low to mid-$70s is the likely landing spot for this very profitable venture.
Rounding out the top five yesterday were Maleficent with $2.3 million and Jersey Boys with $1.9 million. The films increased 32% and 31% respectively from Monday, two of the strongest improvements within the top 10. These two films along with How to Train Your Dragon 2 are the key reasons why combined box office for the top ten spiked 26% to $20.6 million. And in case you were wondering, the “action” at the bottom of the top ten involved Chef, which knocked A Million Ways to Die in the West out of the tenth spot. The difference between the films’ Tuesday box office was, I kid you not, $4,508.