Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
June 11, 2014
Edge of Tomorrow may sound like a soap opera title but the film falls squarely into the science fiction category. It also is skewing toward box office bomb right now. In today’s box office analysis discussion, I will evaluate where it stands right now as well as what needs to happen for the film to avoid the fate of other recent summer sci-fi losers such as John Carter and Battleship.
Before we get started with today’s primary topic, I will return to yesterday’s subject matter for a moment. The Fault in Our Stars grossed $5 million on Tuesday, a total that was enough to earn first place at the box office. Alas, this particular star is fading fast. Its margin of victory on Tuesday was less than $300,000, indicating that the second place film, Maleficent, could upend it as early as today. At most, The Fault in Our Stars will spend seven days in first place, and the reality is that it probably does not reach a full week.
I mentioned standard daily box office behavior in yesterday’s column. One of the rules established is that films do better on Tuesday than on Monday, at least most of the time. That was true for 90% of the top ten yesterday. The lone exception was The Fault in Our Stars. It fell 2%, a negligible amount in theory. In execution, any drop whatsoever for a new movie indicates frontloading. The Shailene Woodley romance has a current total of $58.1 million so it is a dynamic performer. It simply is not showing the early signs of legs Fox had hoped would occur.
For its part, Maleficent is quietly becoming a leggy film. Its $4.7 million on Tuesday represents growth of 17% from Monday’s $4 million. Maleficent claimed the best Monday to Tuesday increase of any movie in the top five. In addition, the Disney release has now grossed $8.7 million on Monday and Tuesday. Last week, it earned $13.4 million over the same timeframe. A weekday drop of 35% is exceptional. With $136.9 million already in the bank, the film is poised to reclaim its spot as the number one domestic release either today or tomorrow. As of this moment, it has been the number one movie in nine out of 12 days in release.
While Maleficent is no Frozen, this box office performance is quite Pixar-ish thus far. To wit, WALL-E earned $136.1 million after 12 days; the Pixar masterpiece finished with $223.8 million domestically. An even better analog in terms of current results is Up, due to its similar release period. Up’s 12th day in theaters was June 9, 2009. It had accumulated $146.8 million by that point. Maleficent will obviously not match that title’s $293 million domestic take. It is lagging behind Up’s pace. Up was unusually leggy for 2009 and 2014 releases do not have the theatrical staying power that they claimed just five years ago. My point is rather that the Angelina Jolie film still has a lot more potential in it than people are appreciating. $225 million still seems feasible, and more is not out of the question.