Daily Box Office Analysis

By David Mumpower

June 11, 2014

WHERE'S OPRAH???

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The positive about the career of Tom Cruise is that he is still one of the most popular stars in the world, even as North America runs hot and cold on him. Herein lays the proof. Cruise’s most recent 11 films prior to Edge of Tomorrow grossed $1.347 billion domestically. The lone exclusion is Lions for Lambs, which was simply too big a bomb to justify foreign exhibitions. On average, Cruise’s globally released movies have grossed $122.5 million abroad.

Internationally, he does much better. Those same 11 titles claim international revenue of $2.373 billion, over a billion more (!). So, the same Tom Cruise movie that earns $122.5 million on this side of the Atlantic (and Pacific) improves to $215.7 million overseas. So, he is 1.762 times as popular in the rest of the world as he is in the United States. That sounds like great news for Edge of Tomorrow. It isn’t.




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The glowingly reviewed action flick has earned enough over five days that we can reasonably project a final domestic total of $80 million, give or take. I will hone the accuracy of this number over the next couple of weeks as the summer box office campaign continues. We already have over a 1 to 1 ratio with its international revenue since it grossed $82 million already. Let’s boost that to the outer limits and anticipate that Edge of Tomorrow does three times as well overseas, a total of $240 million. That provides the title with roughly $320 million in global box office. Is it profitable? The answer is probably not.

Only about 60% of the film’s $80 million domestic take would be recouped, an amount in the range of $48 million. Let’s now presume that the non-Chinese box office, the other 70%, is recouped at a high rate, 25%. That would be another $168 million. Finally, let’s average Chinese return on ticket sales at 10%, a number I believe is ambitious rather than pessimistic. That’s only $8 million out of the $80 million estimated. That brings its overall take, the actual one rather than the global box office total, to $224 million. As I mentioned above, the negative cost is presumed to be $225 million or more, meaning that even if Edge of Tomorrow garners $320 million, it loses a tiny amount of money because of the domestic/foreign box office receipt discrepancy in play. That’s strike three. It’s out.


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