New at BOP: Review: Matrix Resurrections Movie Review: Moonfall Movie Reviews: Scream The #1 Movie in America November Forecast The Many Saints of Newark October Forecast New Trivia Question All site updates Share & Save   Tweet Print this column

So, using this rule, which of 12 Years a Slave or American Hustle has the edge as the race stands here today? Well, it is closer than one may think. 12 Years is a difficult movie to watch, for some at least. It is unforgiving in its realistic and honest depictions of the most shameful chapter in our history. I fear that many Oscar voters will simply think “Thanks, but no thanks.” On the other hand, voting for 12 Years also has the potential to make some members feel good about themselves. “See, slavery is bad. Vote.” American Hustle, by contrast, is an easy movie. It tells the typical anti-hero story that the Academy loves, one featuring an ultimately redeemed individual who sees the light. But it is widely known that its director, David O. Russell, is not universally beloved in Hollywood, and a vote for his movie may not leave everyone “feeling good about themselves.” And, what’s so important about American Hustle in today’s moment, anyway? It undeniably does not have the gravitas that 12 Years possesses. So it’s an astonishingly difficult choice to make. Certainly, a strong nominations tally will be an indication that either movie resonated with several branches. As it is now, I have to pick 12 Years for the win, simply because it is plainly the better movie than the more rambling, and at times overacted, American Hustle.

Predicting the Nominees : Best Picture and Director

With that first, bold, doomed-to-be-wrong prediction out of the way, I will offer a few more that can give you a head start in winning your Oscar pools, should you dare to listen. What movies will join this trifecta at the Best Picture nominations podium, and exactly how many nominees will there be? Predictions vary widely across the web, but here’s my stab at it.

First, it is a foregone conclusion that 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, and American Hustle will roll off of Chris Hemsworth’s pretty face on nominations morning. Done deal, take it to the bank, etc. The consensus fourth slot will most likely go to Captain Phillips, a solid film with respected acting turns by a well-liked director, Paul Greengrass. From here it gets dicier. My gut tells me that Martin Scorsese’s controversial masterpiece The Wolf of Wall Street has enough passionate supporters to easily nab a nomination. The well-known saying amongst Oscar pundits is that controversy gets you a nomination but never a win, and I believe this will hold true for Wolf as it has for other movies in recent memory, The Tree of Life being the example that first comes to mind.

Next up is likely Alexander Payne’s exquisite portrayal of an American Life in Nebraska. Perhaps one of my favorite movies at the New York Film Festival, Nebraska has enough love from the acting branch, in my view, to get it through easily to a Best Picture nod. The next two movies seem to be teetering on the edge, yet PGA nominations for Dallas Buyers Club and Saving Mr. Banks, along with a SAG nod for the former indicate at least some guild respect for the two films that ought to be enough to send them to the group of finalists on nominations morning. Saving Mr. Banks, however, appears to be the weakest after starting off strong post-release. Still, Emma Thompson’s sure-to-be-nominated performance, Tom Hanks’ popularity, and the appeal of a movie about the making of a movie ought to prove sufficiently irresistible to enough Academy voters.

Continued:       1       2       3       4