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And so it’s come down to this. Two potential more spots. The PGA, of course, went with Blue Jasmine and Her. Neither, however, will make my list. Blue Jasmine has not really gained much traction outside of Cate Blanchett’s likely Oscar-winning performance, and it’s sufficiently dark and dreary to turn off some voters looking for that last spot. And Her, I fear, is too quirky and even weird to appeal to voters, and its low box office returns are not a good sign for the witty and insightful Spike Jonze movie, despite its somewhat surprising Screenplay accolade at the Globes. The limb I’m going out on here is to predict that there will be a ninth nominee, but that it will be the mostly unheralded August: Osage County. The SAG nominations are an indication of popularity within the actors’ branch, and the Weinsteins are not about to miss out on a Best Picture nominee for the first time since who knows when. No, I expect them to have at least one successful nominee on Thursday, and I’m going to go with August over the arguably better Philomena on the strength of the star-studded cast and name recognition for the Streep/Roberts vehicle.

As for the Directing category, I think they will match my top five Best Picture nominees and be Steve McQueen for 12 Years, Cuaron for Gravity, Russell for American Hustle, Greengrass for Captain Phillips and, yes, Scorsese for Wolf. I realize this lines up perfectly with the DGA five, and that this is folly by definition as there are normally at one or two discrepancies (last year, of course, was a notable anomaly in that the discrepancies are likely explained by the fact that Oscar nominations closed before the DGA nominations had been released; this year, the trigger-shy directors of the Academy directing branch had the benefit of the DGA nominations before they filled out their ballots). But I really believe that the Academy branch will recognize Wolf for the masterpiece that it is, and that it will go the conventional route by nominating the perceived Best Picture front runners. The last thing they want is another Argo-type mini-scandal on their hands.

Predicting the Nominees: Lead Actor and Actress

The lead acting categories are somewhat tougher. In the Best Actress race there are again three sure-bet contenders. The far-and-away front-runner Blanchett, who turns in the best performance of her career; Sandra Bullock for Gravity, who gives what is perhaps the hardest performance of the year in terms of simple degree of physical difficulty; and Emma Thompson for Mr. Banks, a subtle, beautiful performance that would have reigned supreme any other year. From there it gets messy. Amy Adams is no sure thing for American Hustle, but a nomination will surely be sign of the relative strength of the film. Some are saying Judi Dench for Philomena, a sublime performance that should not be missed by any moviegoer this year. And of course there’s the undeniable Meryl. Although my gut tells me that Meryl fatigue may rob her of her record-breaking 17th nomination this time around, for the sake of consistency with my view that the movie is stronger than some people believe, I will slot Meryl in the fifth spot, with Dame Judi sadly missing the cut. But it’s fairly certain to be somewhere within those six actresses. No one else has a realistic chance.

Best Actor is much more of a cluster**. By my count there are at least eight, if not nine, actors with serious chances at a nomination. Probably safe are Tom Hanks for Phillips and Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years, as those performances anchor two Best Picture front runners and, in any event, are strong on their own merit. Bruce Dern for Nebraska is arguably next, given that he gives what is probably the best performance of the year in this category, and that he has led a remarkable and admired career. It gets dicier after this. If I had an Oscar ballot I would undoubtedly pencil in Robert Redford and Leonardo DiCaprio for two astonishing performances. Like Bullock, Redford gets in simply based on the degree of difficulty of heading up an entire film - literally every scene - and doing so masterfully without uttering more than a handful of words over the course of two hours. And DiCaprio’s versatile, moving performance, although at the level of what we’ve come to expect from Leo, cannot be discounted. But Matthew McConaughey’s transformation from romantic comedy oaf to serious actor has rightfully earned him respect amongst the Hollywood elite, and his performance in Dallas Buyers Club, while somewhat clunky at times, cannot be ignored. Nor can Christian Bale’s transformative turn in American Hustle, and if the movie is strong he will likely be swept in with its coattails. Other movie-stealing performances like Oscar Isaac’s in Inside Llewyn Davis and Forest Whitaker’s The Butler are likely on the outside looking in, but hearing their names called would not be entirely shocking. In the end, however, I’m going to predict either Bale or McConaughey to squeeze out Redford for the nomination.

So there you have it. Come back Thursday morning to check out how wrong I am.

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