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Second place really is first loser today. Yes, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug has been the overall number one movie during the Twelve Days and yes, it earned another $7.8 million yesterday, bringing its domestic tally up to $209.3 million. That makes its 11-day holiday take $92.4 million, beating Frozen by $5.8 million. The problem is that at the end of business on December 21st, The Desolation of Smaug trailed The Hobbit by $20.5 million after nine days in release for each. After 20 days in release, the gap has increased to $33.2 million. There simply has not been as much demand for this product in North America as prior Lord of the Rings titles.

I have received a couple of messages questioning why I don’t consider overseas revenue when I evaluate The Desolation of Smaug. The short answer is that I do but that such critical analysis does not enhance my opinion of the new product. At the end of 2003, the three Lord of the Rings movies were all in the top 10 all-time in global box office revenue. The “worst” of the three earned $556 million overseas, which was the eighth best international performance ever until that time.

How did The Hobbit do outside North America? It grossed $714 million, well short of Return of the King’s $752.2 million, and that movie came out in 2003. The international marketplace has experienced landmark growth in the interim yet The Hobbit fell back from its predecessor. Now, The Desolation of Smaug is declining from The Hobbit. The brand is in dramatic decline, and there is simply no refuting this point.

I believe that an entire generation of kids grew up hearing about how wonderful Peter Jackson’s Tolkien adaptations were. When they grew old enough to make a decision on their own, they discovered an inferior product with the Lord of the Rings brand stamped on it. Needless to say, they have been nonplussed. The good news for everyone involved with this project is that disappointed customers are still paying customers. In turning one book into a movie trilogy, the franchise has already added $1.6 billion to the coffers with another movie to go. And the final film in a trilogy is usually the most lucrative of the three because it provides closure. In other words, less is still more with The Hobbit.

Finishing in third and fourth place yesterday were a pair of awards contenders that are also doing well at the box office. The Wolf of Wall Street entered its second week in theaters with another $5.7 million. It has now grossed $47.3 million and should be near $70 million by the end of the weekend. I have stressed that the cost of the production, at least $85 million and possibly as high as $100 million, means it has a lot of work to do to be profitable. The good news is that as long as it continues to keep awards season momentum, it should do so.

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