The Twelve Days of Box Office Day Twelve
By David Mumpower
January 2, 2014
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Yes, the December holidays are over. Yesterday’s box office was the final one, New Year’s Day. As always, the last hurrah was a great one. Every movie in wide release increased from New Year’s Eve, a phenomenon that is largely explained by the celebratory nature of that particular evening. Be honest. Have you sobered yet? If you worked on any Christmas Day release other than The Wolf of Wall Street, I sure hope not for your sake. In fact, feel free to drink every time I say million. The twelve step program can start next week. Today is a good day for more self-pity binge-drinking.
If you have been paying attention the last few days, you know what the headline will be. Yes, Frozen finished in first place again yesterday. That marked its fourth win in a row and fifth overall during the Twelve Days of Box Office. Technically, it is not the winner of the holiday season as the movie in second place (you’ll never guess which one) won six out of eleven days so far. What I will note is that due to this calendar configuration, today’s box office is effectively Day Twelve while Friday is Day Thirteen aka Overtime, and Frozen will win each of these as well. That makes the score 7-6 heading into the weekend. So, even if we do not score the bout relative to expectations, I still think Frozen will win if we include Thursday and the weekend. Then again, I am a member of the Disney Vacation Club so all of the Tolkien fanatics writing their daily complaints that I am biased may be on to something.
Anyway, Frozen grossed another $8.7 million (DRINK!) domestically yesterday, bringing its grand total to $271.8 million. With that turn of events, the animated movie with the killer soundtrack (FYI: I actually prefer Demi Lovato’s version of Let It Go to Idina Menzel’s) surpassed another Disney property, Monsters University, to become the fourth biggest domestic release of 2013. Next up is Man of Steel with $291 million, a total that Frozen should blow by either this weekend or soon afterward.
While I could spend an hour hurling superlatives on Frozen, let’s focus on the core concept for this particular series of columns. Frozen’s $8.7 million is a total better than the movie managed on any day from December 15th to December 25th. Yes, its New Year’s Day total surpassed its Christmas Day number. During the twelve days leading up to the start of the Twelve Days of box office, Frozen grossed $60.5 million. During the first eleven days of the Big Twelve (no, not the football conference where defense is a foreign concept), Frozen garnered $86.6 million. The end of year holiday season effectively ignores the known behavior about titles in release. Films appreciate in value rather than depreciate.
Second place really is first loser today. Yes, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug has been the overall number one movie during the Twelve Days and yes, it earned another $7.8 million yesterday, bringing its domestic tally up to $209.3 million. That makes its 11-day holiday take $92.4 million, beating Frozen by $5.8 million. The problem is that at the end of business on December 21st, The Desolation of Smaug trailed The Hobbit by $20.5 million after nine days in release for each. After 20 days in release, the gap has increased to $33.2 million. There simply has not been as much demand for this product in North America as prior Lord of the Rings titles.
I have received a couple of messages questioning why I don’t consider overseas revenue when I evaluate The Desolation of Smaug. The short answer is that I do but that such critical analysis does not enhance my opinion of the new product. At the end of 2003, the three Lord of the Rings movies were all in the top 10 all-time in global box office revenue. The “worst” of the three earned $556 million overseas, which was the eighth best international performance ever until that time.
How did The Hobbit do outside North America? It grossed $714 million, well short of Return of the King’s $752.2 million, and that movie came out in 2003. The international marketplace has experienced landmark growth in the interim yet The Hobbit fell back from its predecessor. Now, The Desolation of Smaug is declining from The Hobbit. The brand is in dramatic decline, and there is simply no refuting this point.
I believe that an entire generation of kids grew up hearing about how wonderful Peter Jackson’s Tolkien adaptations were. When they grew old enough to make a decision on their own, they discovered an inferior product with the Lord of the Rings brand stamped on it. Needless to say, they have been nonplussed. The good news for everyone involved with this project is that disappointed customers are still paying customers. In turning one book into a movie trilogy, the franchise has already added $1.6 billion to the coffers with another movie to go. And the final film in a trilogy is usually the most lucrative of the three because it provides closure. In other words, less is still more with The Hobbit.
Finishing in third and fourth place yesterday were a pair of awards contenders that are also doing well at the box office. The Wolf of Wall Street entered its second week in theaters with another $5.7 million. It has now grossed $47.3 million and should be near $70 million by the end of the weekend. I have stressed that the cost of the production, at least $85 million and possibly as high as $100 million, means it has a lot of work to do to be profitable. The good news is that as long as it continues to keep awards season momentum, it should do so.
American Hustle is in a much better situation. Filmed for a modest $40 million, the latest film from Lily Tomlin’s mortal enemy, David O Russell, grossed $5.4 million yesterday. It has now earned $72.9 million in only 20 days of release. This project is a mortal lock for $100 million now, and could go much higher if it becomes a heavily nominated Academy Awards contender.
Fifth and sixth place are comprised of another pair of holiday winners. Anchorman 2: The Legend of Ron Burgundy is undeniably frontloaded, which is why it fell to fifth place yesterday. It still managed $4.9 million; with $95.9 million in the bank, it should be crossing $100 million by Friday, possibly even by the time you read this. Saving Mr. Banks is in similarly great shape. Another $4.2 million gives the Walt Disney movie $48.3 million against a $35 million budget. It will exit theaters well in the black, becoming the latest hit for everyman celebrity Tom Hanks.
How are you doing with the drinking game? If you have simply taken a swallow once every five times I said “million”, you should have half a dozen drinks in you by now. That should be good enough to handle the final part of the column, which I am calling the Loser’s Bracket (with one exception). If you aren’t sure you are drunk enough yet, please take a moment to chug like you are trying to reboot The Hangover franchise. But…don’t do that. Enough is enough.
Seventh place goes to The Secret Life of Walter Mitty. The secret is apparently that nobody should ever spend $90 million on a whimsical action dramedy. With $4.1 million yesterday, the Ben Stiller movie has now earned $35.5 million after eight days, and it is fading fast. The film should cross $50 million by Sunday yet it is still wildly unlikely to match its budget.
The movie in eighth place is the lone winner in the bottom group. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire grossed an estimated $2.9 million yesterday. With $398.4 million in the bank, the franchise is on the cusp of greatness today. Today, it will join Star Wars and Batman as only the third franchise to claim multiple $400+ million titles. Before you start using fingers covered in Cheeto dust to send me nasty missives, please note that The Avengers and Iron Man are considered distinct franchises. As of this moment, there are only 18 movies that have earned $400 million domestically. Two of those have The Hunger Games in the title. The feat is particularly stunning when you realize that no Harry Potter movie ever managed to cross $400 million, meaning that franchise went 0 for 8. The Hunger Games is 2 for 2.
The ninth and tenth place entrants are not winners. No, they are what we describe in the most technical terms as bombs. And I mean the ones with split atoms generating their power. 47 Ronin continues to be everyone’s favorite punching bag this week, as the $175 million movie grossed $2.6 million yesterday. Let’s take a moment to look at the positive here. That’s an increase of 86% from Tuesday’s $1.4 million! Now that I have tried to be positive, let’s be realistic. With $26.4 million in the bank after 8 days, it is a box office factor (in the most generous sense of the word) for another five to seven days. A week from now, it graduates into the punch line phase of its eternal existence.
Speaking of punches, Grudge Match grossed $2.2 million yesterday and has a running total of $18.5 million. So the movie has earned about $100,000 per year of age of the two lead actors. At least it feels that way. I should note that I just watched Bullet to the Brain so I’m kind of pissed at Sylvester Stallone right now.
On a site note, tomorrow’s update will be brief. I do intend to write a summary column at some point next week. The Top Film Industry Stories of the Year will also post starting on Sunday. Finally, if anyone involved with the production of 47 Ronin read today’s column, I feel like I should apologize…but COME ON! $175 million?