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Weekend Forecast for September 27-29, 2013

By Reagen Sulewski

September 27, 2013

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A second Avengers alumnus has a film out this weekend with Don Jon, Joseph Gordon-Levitt's directorial debut. In it, he stars as a porn-addicted lothario who meets his match when he starts dating Scarlett Johansson and finds that even the most beautiful woman in the world can't meet his expectations he's gathered from porn. Not that you would know any of this from the commercials for the film, which trumpet loudly the fact of the director, and which is highlighted by him embarrassing himself while singing along to Marky Mark. Such things do not a blockbuster make. However, as a seemingly guy-friendly romantic comedy, it might have a bit of an in for this market, and its two attractive stars should be worth a few million just on their own. I'd look for a debut of $9 million.

A second romantic comedy debuts this weekend with Baggage Claim, starring Paula Patton. As a *gasp* mid-30s single flight attendant who is anxious about seeing all her friends finding a husband, she decides to embark on a 30-day journey to find her soulmate, since love always works best on a deadline. Judging by the poster, she's going to select the very best bald or baldish African-American man with some form of stubbly facial hair, or possibly Adam Brody (not pictured). This might include Derek Luke, Taye Diggs, Boris Kodjoe, Trey Songz or Djimon Hounsou and a couple of others in there probably. Prepare for a number of wacky awkward dates and hilarious misunderstandings! Reviews of the film are close to universally negative, but this film is playing to a market segment that's quite immune to reviews. At the same time, there's not a lot to really sell this film in the ads, and I'd expect an opening weekend of about $7 million.




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Prisoners was a modest surprise with $20 million for its debut, pointing to the solid appeal of Hugh Jackman and dark dramas about missing kids. Word-of-mouth has been quite solid, and while I don't expect this film to be in the mix for end of year awards, it's proving to have made a solid connection with audiences. I'd give it about $13 million for its second weekend.

The free money for Film District that is Insidious: Chapter 2 is rapidly falling off, but at $62 million so far, it really doesn't need to earn anything more to be considered a success. James Wan has likely received a free pass or two to make whatever he wants, and just think – he hasn't even made Fast 7 Furious yet. Look for about $6 million here.


Forecast: Weekend of September 27-29, 2013
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 4,001 New 45.6
2 Prisoners 3,290 +30 13.3
3 Rush 2,297 +2,292 11.6
4 Don Jon 2,422 New 9.7
5 Baggage Claim 2,026 New 6.5
6 Insidious: Chapter 2 3,120 -35 6.4
7 The Family 2,894 -197 4.2
8 Instructions Not Included 948 -30 4.1
9 We're the Millers 2,405 -598 3.0
10 Lee Daniels' The Butler 2,062 -869 2.9

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