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Weekend Forecast for August 23-25, 2013

By Reagen Sulewski

August 23, 2013

Several men after Homer Simpson's heart.

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Which brings us to the real reason to go to the movies this weekend (even if most of you don't think so), The World's End. While it seems to follow on the heels of the many, many apocalypse themed films of the last couple of years, it's actually the long-planned conclusion of the unofficial “Cornetto” trilogy of Edgar Winter, Simon Pegg and Nick Frost, and hopefully most of you still know what I'm talking about. Loosely connected with Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz, The World's End brings back the core casts of those two films for a film about drinking and, well, the end of the world.

Along with Pegg and Frost (reversing roles as screw-up/relative success), Martin Freeman, Paddy Considine and Eddie Marsan join the cast as a set of drinking buddies who reunite to try to complete a legendary pub crawl in their home town, only to find out that things in the town are not quite what they used to be and they're all in grave peril (if you've managed to avoid seeing what kind of peril from the ads released so far, I won't give away the rest of it). As in Shaun and Hot Fuzz, hilarious genre parody ensues, while still being a really effective example of the genre.

Sadly, while the previous two films are minor cult classics, they've never caught on in North America to any real degree, with the two together barely passing $40 million domestic. I don't expect that to change dramatically here, even as Pegg has become something of a household name thanks to the Mission: Impossible and Star Trek franchises. Yeah, James Doohan wasn't opening many blockbusters either. However, the increased name recognition is probably worth *something*, and the last two films may have had enough time to build a bit of a following. I'd look for a modest $8 million this weekend.

Also expanding is Woody Allen's latest, Blue Jasmine, starring Cate Blanchett, Alec Baldwin, Sally Hawkins, Louis C.K. and Andrew Dice Clay (!). Blanchett plays a wealthy socialite in the middle of a breakdown after realizing her general uselessness to the real world. This appears to be “good” Woody Allen, after the disappointment of To Rome With Love, and has already earned about $9 million in limited release. An expansion to 1,200 or so venues should bump this up to around $4 million this weekend.




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After an impressive $24 million start, Lee Daniels' The Butler does not look like it's ready for an amazing run, though awards attention could change that. The best opinion of the movie seems to be “well, that was surprisingly unhorrible”, and its check-list take on the civil rights movement of the 1960s hasn't inspired much in the way of raves. I don't think we're at full Tyler Perry, but a steep drop to around $11 million could be in the cards.

That's about the same take that We're the Millers should find in its third weekend, as it's proving itself to be a solid little earner with around $75 million in the bank so far. For a late summer comedy, its eventual total of around $125 million is definitely above the average.

In slightly more trouble is our next trio of films, Planes, Elysium and Kick-Ass 2. All of them earned around $13 million last weekend, and they should end up with between $5 and $8 million this weekend, with the family film ranging towards the higher end. That the first two will end well short of $100 million is a major upset, and that the third might not crack $30 million seems like a minor victory for taste.


Forecast: Weekend of August 23-25, 2013
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 You're Next 2,435 New 15.2
2 The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones 3,118 New 11.4
3 Lee Daniels' The Butler 3,110 +177 11.4
4 We're the Millers 3,445 +120 11.0
5 The World's End 1,548 New 8.3
6 Planes 3,378 -338 8.0
7 Elysium 2,913 -371 7.3
8 Kick-Ass 2 2,945 +5 5.8
9 Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters 2,730 -350 4.8
10 Blue Jasmine 1,237 +1,008 3.9

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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