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Weekend Forecast for July 5-7, 2013

By Reagen Sulewski

July 3, 2013

Reenactments of 'love' scenes between Tiger Woods and his mistresses.

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Setting all that aside, the action of the film looks to be decent – your standard summer action film fare, with plenty of gunplay, exploding trains and set pieces that try to take as much advantage of their setting as possible. Depp in particular seems to be especially adept at his “just in time” stunts that are borrowed in large degree from his Captain Jack Sparrow, which is appropriate considering he's working with Gore Verbinski again. Westerns have continued to find trouble at the box office in recent years when they try to go high concept – Cowboys and Aliens being the most recent casualty in this manner. In addition, this has all the look of a film that's “too much,” and audiences may have picked up on it. A total failure seems unlikely due to the talent involved (including a rare Helena Bonham Carter appearance when Tim Burton isn't involved), but the film's gigantic budget is also unlikely to be justified. Over three days, we should see about $51 million, with another $28 million in the two days prior to the weekend.

Stand-up films are a rare beast these days, particularly ones getting wide release. Kevin Hart might be one of the few who can make that happen (I'd doubt even Louis C.K.'s ability to get that done right now due to the differences in his audiences and output). His latest, Let Me Explain, follows 2011's Laugh at My Pain, which managed a $2 million weekend in just 98 theaters. That's not going to scale quite exactly, but in 800 theaters or so, the comic should be able to find at least an $8 million weekend.

Monsters University took a second weekend at the top of the box office, but meets its match in terms of family entertainment this weekend. However, with $180 million already in the bank, it's kind of a “so what” challenge, even as it's likely to fall by the wayside some. Its predecessor was one of the few notable films actually to show a measurable impact from competition, as it was hurt by the first Harry Potter film, but a summer release and the lower amount of hype for Despicable Me 2 shouldn't bring that level of hurt. Instead, I'd look for a modest fall to around $24 million.




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The Heat was the champ of the two new films last weekend, opening to $39 million, proving that two women can open an action comedy and will spawn an enormous number of copy-cats that will miss the point entirely. Such is the Hollywood cycle. Give The Heat about $19 million this frame.

White House Down was in all terms a miss, opening to just $24 million and ceding “blowed up the White House good” championship status to Olympus Has Fallen. Perhaps there were only so many people looking forward to that this year, and they all got used up. I'd watch for this to fall to around $13 million this weekend, even with patriotic (?) fervor.

World War Z should likewise drop significantly to that amount, as the apocalyptic drama has struggled to inspire good word-of-mouth. In the end, we can really just mourn the TV series that never was, or get that Kickstarter going to make it happen.

Lastly in significant returning films, there's Man of Steel, which crossed the $250 million mark on Monday. This is maybe enough to justify a sequel, but we're in marginal return territory here. Add on $10 million this weekend.


Forecast: Weekend of July 5-7, 2013
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Despicable Me 2 N/A New 72.5
2 The Lone Ranger N/A New 50.8
3 Monsters University N/A N/A 24.3
4 The Heat N/A N/A 19.8
5 White House Down N/A N/A 13.6
6 World War Z N/A N/A 13.4
7 Man of Steel N/A N/A 10.2
8 Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain N/A New 8.6
9 This is the End N/A N/A 4.8
10 Now You See Me N/A N/A 4.0

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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