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Another electric Friday at the box office was predicted. Three titles all garnered supporters in the debate regarding which potential blockbuster would take the day and thereby (presumably) the weekend. While a pair of heralded newcomers faced high expectations, last week’s champion succeeded in defending its title as the number one film in North America for the eighth consecutive day. With regards to the debuting titles, there was some very good news and some very bad news.

For weeks now, there has been a perception that The Heat would behave as a de facto sequel to Identity Thief and Bridesmaids. Rising box office star Melissa McCarthy added cohort Sandra Bullock for an old school buddy flick, and the pairing of two of the most bankable actresses in Hollywood right now led to high expectations. The Heat more than met those expectations, debuting to a tremendous $13.6 million.

For comparison, Bridesmaids started with $7.8 million on its way to a $26.2 million opening weekend and a dazzling domestic gross of $169.1 million. Identity Thief surpassed Bridesmaids on its first day and first weekend with $11.1 million and $34.6 million, respectively. It also earned a shocking total of $134.5 million, far beyond even the most optimistic of predictions for the comedy. Meanwhile, Bullock’s biggest recent release, The Blind Side, debuted to a modest $11.0 million on its first day and $34.1 million on its opening weekend. Its final domestic take was an almost incomprehensible $256 million. Her earlier romantic comedy, The Proposal, began with $12.7 million and $33.6 million before ending with $164 million.

What we can learn from the above is that a combination of McCarthy and Bullock is the most dynamic leading lady tandem in Hollywood at the moment. Their joint presence in a buddy cop film represents a casting masterstroke. Audiences absolutely agreed as the movie’s Friday gross surpassed all of the titles listed above. Fox has another $100 million comedy in the offing and probably a LOT more.

The primary question right now is how big the opening weekend will be. The four films above all fell in the range of 3.1-3.36 on their weekend multipliers save for The Proposal, which was considerably lower at 2.65. Ergo, the reasonable worst case scenario for The Heat is $36 million, which would also represent the best of the five blockbusters under discussion. My believe is that The Heat will follow the 3.1 pattern and thereby become the only $40+ million debut of these titles with $42.2 million.

Now here is the bad news. There are a few laws in Hollywood, one of the most important being the following. On those rare occasions when two projects with the same theme are released, becoming the first title in theaters represents a huge competitive advantage. The later release had better be good enough to entice consumers to watch the same basic concept twice.

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