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Friday Box Office Analysis

By David Mumpower

June 29, 2013

We were told this was where we could audition for Girls Gone Wild.

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White House Down failed to deliver in this regard. As such, the $150 million (!) production debuted with a measly $9 million, barely good enough for third place yesterday. White House Down provided something idea-clone Olympus Has Fallen lacked, star power, due to the combination of Jamie Foxx and Channing Tatum. Alas, audiences determined it had little else to offer. White House Down is likely to finish in fourth place for the weekend and will inevitably join After Earth as the worst bombs of the summer. For Foxx, this is a Stealth redux. Meanwhile, the movie in which Tatum provided a cameo appearance, This Is The End, will probably winding up earning the same amount of domestic box office for roughly 20% of the cost.

In case you were wondering, Olympus Has Fallen debuted to $10.1 million on its way to an opening weekend of $30.4 million. More important, it cost only $70 million to produce, thereby leading to the obvious conclusion that FilmDistrict’s release was a much better investment than Sony’s. Realistically, this situation is similar to Mission to Mars and Red Planet in 2000. Neither of the Destruction of D.C. movies will be remembered for anything more than parts of “identical movie twins” lists.

The wizards at Pixar are experiencing a fantastic June. Monsters University already stamped itself with the second best opening weekend in the history of the storied animation house. The Disney production follows that frame with a stellar $14.3 million on its second Friday, a weekly decline of only 53%. For comparison, the two previous Pixar releases were Brave and Cars 2. Those two titles fell 58% and 70% respectively. Obviously, Monsters University is striking a chord with consumers in a way that other recent Pixar titles had been unable to manage.




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Monsters University has already grossed $139.1 million and is poised to become the third most popular Pixar film thus far. For all of the social media criticism about Disney's decision to sequel-ize many of their beloved titles, the box office results as well as the toy sales revenue figures speak for themselves. Monsters University should gross $45.8 million this weekend, thereby narrowly edging Monsters, Inc.'s $45.6 million to become the fourth best second weekend in Pixar history. Any total over $46.6 million would raise Monsters University to third while an admittedly unlikely $50.4 million would place it in second. Finding Nemo and The Incredibles currently hold second and third place in this regard. Toy Story 3 holds the current Pixar record with $59.3 million.

Last weekend's other huge opener, World War Z, once again defied expectations. By earning $8.9 million, the movie declined "only" 65% Friday-to-Friday. Remember that movies are less Friday-skewed after opening weekend so the weekend decline for WWZ should be less than 60%. A second weekend of $28.5 million is roughly what the projections had been for the film's opening weekend just a couple of months ago. With $102.8 million in the coffers against a $190 million production budget, the zombie flick has a long way to go to become profitable. It has avoided the disastrous fate that we are witnessing this weekend with White House Down, though.


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