Friday Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
May 4, 2013
Three of those movies had failed to achieve this mark on Friday. Jack the Giant Slayer and 42 broke the $10 million barrier on Saturday, while A Good Day to Die Hard required a holiday-inflated Sunday to join the rest. Yes, only nine titles released in 2013 have debuted north of $10 million on Friday.
Whittling the list even further, only six of the features mentioned above achieved a second day of double-digit domestic box office. Four of those titles also happen to be the only $100+ million earners debuting in calendar 2013. They are The Croods, G.I. Joe Retaliation, Identity Thief, Olympus Has Fallen and Oz the Great and Powerful. Mama and Olympus Has Fallen slot into their own unique category as the only 2013 titles to earn multiple $10+ million box office days without grossing at least $100 million domestically.
Out of the four $100+ million earners released in 2013, only one film has grossed at least $20 million in a single day. That title is Oz the Great and Powerful, which achieved this mark each of the three days during its opening weekend. It grossed $24,096,622 on Friday, $33,017,570 on Saturday and $21,996,261 on Sunday. The next best day of box office this year…well, it’s almost Oz again with $18,221,991 the following Saturday. Out of the non-Oz films, The Croods previously claimed the best single day domestic take this year, grossing $18,980,862 on March 23rd, the fourth best total of 2013. Yes, Oz’s fourth best day had been the fifth best day of 2013 overall heading into yesterday.
Summarizing, the year 2013 in movies has been so pathetic that only a dozen titles have earned $10+ million in a single day. Out of those 12 releases, only two had managed even $18 million in a day. Only four titles have grossed $100+ million in four full months of release. Compare that to 2009 when three different January 2009 releases (Gran Torino, Paul Blart: Mall Cop and Taken) all earned at least $100 million. In short, 2013 has been every bit as terrible as your perception of the situation.
Extrapolating an opening weekend projection for Iron Man 3 is a bit tricky. Iron Man 2’s behavior is not the perfect model since that was a Paramount release occurring prior to the release of The Avengers. I think all our readers would agree that Iron Man 3 skews younger now than its immediate predecessor did in 2010. Iron Man 2 grossed $7.5 million in Thursday sneaks and $43.7 million in Friday revenue. Then, it increased 4.5% to $45.7 million on Saturday before falling 32% to $31.1 million on Sunday. The Avengers grossed $18.7 million in Thursday sneaks and $62.1 million on Friday. It increased 12% to $69.6 million on Saturday before falling 18% to $57.1 million on Sunday.
What we can infer from the above is that once the $15.6 million is removed, Iron Man 3 should see a Friday-to-Saturday increase from $52.7 million. I am expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of 8%, which would indicate a $56.9 million Saturday. This is the litmus number. Anything above this indicates that Iron Man 3 is going to be special. Well, even more special. The Sunday portion is where I believe we will see the Disney influence the most. I believe a 23% decrease should be about right, which is exceptional for a third movie in a trilogy. This calculation results in a $43.8 million Sunday and a $169 million weekend. I should note that some of my models include calculations as low as $145 million, so there is still a lot of fluctuation possible.