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Weekend Forecast for March 1-3, 2013

by Tim Briody

March 1, 2013

Hello, I'm Ewan McGregor, and I have no idea what I'm doing in this movie.

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The most questionable title of the week belongs to The Last Exorcism Part II. But they told us this was the last exorcism! Those liars! Anyway, the 2010 film gets a sequel, which I suppose was to be expected after it opened to $20.3 million on a budget of just $1.6 million. It kind of doesn't matter that it only finished with $41 million, it's still found money for the studio, this time being CBS Films, not Lionsgate like the first go around.

The sequel begins right where the last one left off and returns somebody from the first film, but they still aren't anyone you would recognize. The best thing The Last Exorcism had going for it was its release date: the last weekend in August. This time, audiences are probably going to be a bit more selective. That said, it's good for about $10 million or so on the weekend, which is still probably twice its production cost, so stay tuned for "Really, Finally The Last Exorcism And This Time We Mean It" in a couple years.

The final wide release of the weekend is Phantom, which somehow is not a horror film. A thriller taking place on a Russian submarine during the Cold War, it stars Ed Harris, David Duchovny and William Fichtner, all of whom look like they were blackmailed to appear in this. The first major release from heretofore unknown RCR Media Group, it somehow got in 2,000 theaters on the weekend. Some bizarre contractual obligation may be at work here, and if it happens to take in more than $3 million on the weekend, I'd be very surprised.




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After rebounding to #1 last weekend, Identity Thief will cross $100 million sometime on Saturday, making it the first 2013 film to do so. That's certainly a feather in the cap of Melissa McCarthy, and to a lesser extent Jason Bateman, who has quietly starred in three $100 million comedies in the last few years. Identity Thief remains the top comedy option on the weekend, and should be in the mix with another $10 million.

As is typically the case, Oscar fallout on the box office is pretty minimal, Silver Linings Playbook is the only major award winner still in wide release, and acting awards alone don't normally provide a big boost. Despite four new releases, it should cling to the bottom half of the top ten with about $4.6 million.

Best Picture winner Argo was 12th place last weekend with $1.8 million despite already being out on DVD. It's actually adding about 150 theaters this weekend, and has an outside shot at returning to the top ten with a soft bottom half of the chart. The Artist picked up about 25% a week after its victory last year, but that was after nearly doubling its screen count. The best case scenario for Argo would be about $2.5 million.


Forecast: Weekend of
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Jack the Giant Slayer 3,525 New 36.2
2 21 and Over 2,771 New 13.4
3 Identity Thief 3,227 +5 10.1
4 The Last Exorcism Part II 2,700 New 10.0
5 Escape from Planet Earth 3,110 -243 7.4
6 Safe Haven 2,951 -272 6.6
7 Snitch 2,511 0 5.9
8 A Good Day to Die Hard 2,589 -966 5.0
9 Silver Linings Playbook 1,836 -176 4.6
10 Argo 985 +183 2.5

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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