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Already, we are whittled down to 11 castaways – in other words, two finalists and a nine-member jury, or three finalists and and eight jurors – so it might just be time for a merge. The last four merges have all taken place in Episode 7, and tonight is this season’s seventh episode, so this columnist has his fingers crossed that there will be a merge. Even if it makes this column a waste of time. At least it will be the last column where the power rankings are virtually unchanged.

If it does come to a merge, things are going to get crazy and unpredictable. There will be 11 castaways at Tribal Council, split into three broad groups with at least one wild card and three immunity idols. Since the merge hasn’t happened yet, I’ll continue to rank the castaways by tribe, but I’ll throw in a few words on the ones whose decisions are going to become the most important if a merge happens.


Kalabaw

1. Jeff Kent

He’s still the one making the decisions on his tribe, so he’s #1 on the power rankings. There’s not a lot more to say.

2. Jonathan

Jonathan has the Kalabaw immunity idol, which is even more important now that Kalabaw is certain to enter the merge as the minority tribe. It’s probably why Jeff Kent did not pull the trigger on the miserably-named “Penner Punch” last episode. Obviously it would have been bad in the short term had Jonathan played the idol. But also, if Jonathan was voted out with the idol then it would be lost to Kalabaw going into the merge.

3. Carter

Carter is Jeff Kent’s shadow. There’s not a lot to say about Carter, either.

4. Denise

If there’s no merge, then Denise is probably done. Since coming to Kalabaw, she has had exactly the right approach – to prove the value she has for her tribe – but there always has to be someone who holds the least value. Jeff Kent is calling the shots, Carter is his loyal minion already and Jonathan has the immunity idol, which they need for the merge. Under the status quo, Denise can provide as much value as she can, but she’ll still come up short.

Denise’s cards to play are Jeff Kent’s mistrust of Jonathan and her alliance with Malcolm, including his immunity idol. But there are too many uncertainties with that plan – from Jeff Kent’s perspective, it assumes that Malcolm is still willing to ally with Denise, and that Malcolm has flipped a Tandang or two over to make up the numbers they’ll need. Too many ifs.

If there is a merge, then Denise becomes Kalabaw’s link to Tandang, and any Kalabaw alliance would be built around the pairs of Malcolm-Denise and Jeff Kent-Carter. Jonathan would give them a fifth and if they are able to link up with a third pair of RC and Michael (more on that later) they would have a majority that could Pagong the Tandang alliance.



Tandang

After six episodes and no one voted off, I am so bored with Tandang. Nothing has happened there in what seems like forever. We haven’t even seen an Abi throw a psycho fit in three weeks. Dull.

1. Pete

With nothing happening on Tandang, he’s still in control of his alliance.

2. Abi

#2 in the alliance + the Tandang immunity idol. I’m still waiting to see if she does anything stupid, but nothing yet. Have I mentioned that nothing is happening on Tandang?

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