Survivor: Philippines Power Rankings
Episode 7
By Ben Willoughby
October 31, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
If it does come to a merge, things are going to get crazy and unpredictable. There will be 11 castaways at Tribal Council, split into three broad groups with at least one wild card and three immunity idols. Since the merge hasn’t happened yet, I’ll continue to rank the castaways by tribe, but I’ll throw in a few words on the ones whose decisions are going to become the most important if a merge happens.
Kalabaw
1. Jeff Kent
He’s still the one making the decisions on his tribe, so he’s #1 on the power rankings. There’s not a lot more to say.
2. Jonathan
Jonathan has the Kalabaw immunity idol, which is even more important now that Kalabaw is certain to enter the merge as the minority tribe. It’s probably why Jeff Kent did not pull the trigger on the miserably-named “Penner Punch” last episode. Obviously it would have been bad in the short term had Jonathan played the idol. But also, if Jonathan was voted out with the idol then it would be lost to Kalabaw going into the merge.
3. Carter
Carter is Jeff Kent’s shadow. There’s not a lot to say about Carter, either.
4. Denise
If there’s no merge, then Denise is probably done. Since coming to Kalabaw, she has had exactly the right approach – to prove the value she has for her tribe – but there always has to be someone who holds the least value. Jeff Kent is calling the shots, Carter is his loyal minion already and Jonathan has the immunity idol, which they need for the merge. Under the status quo, Denise can provide as much value as she can, but she’ll still come up short.
Denise’s cards to play are Jeff Kent’s mistrust of Jonathan and her alliance with Malcolm, including his immunity idol. But there are too many uncertainties with that plan – from Jeff Kent’s perspective, it assumes that Malcolm is still willing to ally with Denise, and that Malcolm has flipped a Tandang or two over to make up the numbers they’ll need. Too many ifs.
If there is a merge, then Denise becomes Kalabaw’s link to Tandang, and any Kalabaw alliance would be built around the pairs of Malcolm-Denise and Jeff Kent-Carter. Jonathan would give them a fifth and if they are able to link up with a third pair of RC and Michael (more on that later) they would have a majority that could Pagong the Tandang alliance.
Tandang
After six episodes and no one voted off, I am so bored with Tandang. Nothing has happened there in what seems like forever. We haven’t even seen an Abi throw a psycho fit in three weeks. Dull.
1. Pete
With nothing happening on Tandang, he’s still in control of his alliance.
2. Abi
#2 in the alliance + the Tandang immunity idol. I’m still waiting to see if she does anything stupid, but nothing yet. Have I mentioned that nothing is happening on Tandang?
3. Malcolm
I’ve kept Malcolm at #3 because of the opportunities he has with both Tandang and Kalabaw + the Matsing immunity idol. Last week, I found it interesting how he tried to be optimistic over the deal that Michael made for the rice and he was quickly shut down by the people who wanted to bond through being negative. And the previews for this week show him making overtures to Lisa – not to mention, revealing more of his mother issues. I will lay down money saying his mother shows up in the family reunion episode. But, reading the tea-leaves - Malcolm's along for the ride as far as the Abi-Pete axis is concerned, he realizes it and he's making other Tandang connections that don't make him an immediate target.
Malcolm will have to make some choices if there is a merge. Is he still allied with Denise? Does he bring her across or flip to Kalabaw? I think he still sees an alliance with Denise, plus now he has to start thinking of her as a juror, so I don't see him flipping on her. If he can bring someone across with him, I think it's better to make the jump, but if not I think it would be better for him to bring in Denise and use the time spent Pagonging out Kalabaw to build sub-alliances in Tandang.
4. Artis
I’ve knocked Artis up a notch this week, bam! This is partly because he seems to be closer to Pete and Abi than Lisa does, and partly because I’m so bored with everything being the same.
5. Lisa
Is there anything to say about Lisa right now? Tandang is so boring.
6. RC
RC looked a bit more optimistic in interview last week – she can probably see ahead to the merge and the Etch-a-Sketching of the game. Anyway, I’m tired of RC sitting in the jungle looking worried and/or sad, and I may not have mentioned this but nothing is happening at Tandang so any change is welcome.
7. Michael
Michael is still first up to the guillotine as far as his tribe is concerned, but that would all change with a merge. RC and Michael will suddenly find themselves in the position they have been waiting for. They know that if they stay with Tandang, they will have to find some way of outlasting the Pete-Abi-Artis group – probably by building an alliance with Malcolm and Denise, if he brings her across from Kalabaw, or with Lisa, as she’s a nice person and a lousy Survivor player who probably can’t stand Pete, Abi or Artis.
On the other hand, if Malcolm wants to flip over to Kalabaw, he would still need two more people to ensure a majority. If the RC-Michael pair suddenly flipped, they would suddenly have a seven against four alliance. Obviously, seven people in an alliance is too many but (a) they may stand a chance of staying in the game once the other side are Pagonged out and the alliance fractures, and (b) the new alliance wouldn’t be dominated with jerks who hate them.
On balance, I think I like RC and Michael’s chances of winning better if they stay with Tandang – better the devil you know + not flipping means the jury hates you slightly less, but after ten days or so of being systematically beaten down and blamed for everything, I think they will want to flip.
Anyway, if there's a merge, there's a good chance that tonight's episode will be the first episode I'll have enjoyed in weeks. And if not, I'll spend most of next week's power rankings complaining about it.