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Last weekend’s first place finisher, Resident Evil: Retribution, slips all the way to fifth place as it has the worst weekend two decline of any film in the franchise so far – though it should be noted that all of the Resident Evil films have dropped more than 60% in their second frame. The latest film in the zombie virus horror series fell 68% to $6.7 million, which means that it has a ten-day total of $33.5 million. As we have established, though, there will almost certainly be a sixth Resident Evil film, because the bulk of the profits are earned in international markets.

We have reached the worst case scenario portion of the Weekend Wrap-Up. In 1995, Judge Dredd became one of the worst bombs of Sylvester Stallone’s career, no small feat. The movie earned only $34.7 million domestically, an amount that represents $63.8 million in 2012 ticket pricing. The cost to create the film was $90 million and while Judge Dredd did well enough overseas, it has largely been used as a punch line since its release 17 years ago.

Fast forward to today and history has repeated itself. Karl Urban’s action remake, Dredd, opens to an estimated $6.3 million in 2,506 locations. The Lionsgate release claims a woeful per-location average of $2,514. And this is the moment where we remind you that Dredd is a 3D release with inflated box office revenue. In other words, an argument could be made that Dredd was less popular on opening weekend than Jonah Hex, the 2010 disaster that earned $5.4 million sans the benefit of 3D ticket pricing. Dredd is looking up at previous comic book adaptations that bombed such as Elektra ($12.8 million opening), The Punisher ($13.8 million) and Catwoman’s $16.7 million. And if we negate the 3D factor, Dredd is on a par with Punisher: War Zone’s $4.3 million debut.

There is no good news here for Lionsgate. Dredd was produced for a modest $40 million but over $20 million was spent advertising a movie that will not earn $20 million domestically. Overseas revenue may be enough to allow the film to break even overall or even turn a profit, depending on how well received it is. Like its predecessor, Judge Dredd, people will not remember this aspect, though. A $40 million 3D production should never ever never open to a paltry $6.3 million. Dredd is the 3D Oogieloves.

With an expansion from five to 788 locations, the critically acclaimed The Master was able to grow by 579% to $5 million. It bears noting that this art house-type release from The Weinstein Co. was able to come within $1.3 million of the effects-heavy Dredd, which is proof positive that audiences really are searching for original movies with ideas and stories that are expressed intelligently. The Paul Thomas Anderson release has brought its overall total to $6.1 million and strikes first as the first real awards bait movie of the season. Critics are responding positively to The Master, which features Philip Seymour Hoffman, Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams, as so far it sits at 87% fresh at Rotten Tomatoes (and a similar 86% from top critics). All of Anderson’s films have been critical darlings, with the most recent example being There Will Be Blood, an Academy Awards winner for Best Actor and Best Cinematography. We all know that the Weinstein brothers are able to influence Oscar voting in their favor, and it will be interesting to see which film they champion the most, as they still have Killing Them Softly (with Brad Pitt), Silver Linings Playbook (directed by temperamental David O. Russell and starring the aforementioned Jennifer Lawrence) and Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained set for release before 2012 ends.

Our eighth, ninth and tenth place films are all within a few hundred thousand dollars of each other, meaning that the order of finish could easily shift once actual numbers are in. According to estimates, the eighth place film is The Possession, a horror film from Lionsgate that has proven to be quite profitable. It earned another $2.6 million, falling 54%, and brings its domestic total to $45.3 million. Lawless, another Weinstein title, finishes in ninth with $2.3 million. It dropped 47% and has now accrued $34.5 million in domestic receipts. Finally, tenth place goes to ParaNorman, the stop-motion animated film from Focus Features and Laika. It continued to hold well, declining only 26% to $2.3 million. Overall, it has earned $52.6 million from North American venues.

One other noteworthy story this weekend comes from The Perks of Being a Wallflower, which didn’t finish anywhere near the top ten, but managed a stellar per location average of $61,000 in its four venues for a three-day total of $244,000. Based on a popular novel by Stephen Chbosky (who also directs from his own screenplay), this movie features a post-Harry Potter Emma Watson, along with Logan Lerman (Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief) and Ezra Miller (We Need to Talk About Kevin). If Summit carefully expands this film, it could have its own art house hit on its hands.

Overall, the top 12 movies at the box office earned $76.3 million, a decline of 28% from the same weekend last year, when The Lion King 3D and Moneyball were at the top of the box office. Clearly, people are more pro baseball math than they are baseball sentiment these days. Next weekend, new releases will include the animated Hotel Transylvania, the awesome looking Looper and Won’t Back Down, featuring the other Gyllenhaal, Maggie.

Top Weekend Box Office for 9/21/12-9/23/12 (Estimates)
Rank	Film	Distributor	Estimated Gross	Weekly Change	Running Total
1	End of Watch	Open Road	$13,000,000	New	$13,000,000
1	House at the End of the Street	Relativity	$13,000,000	New	$13,000,000
3	Trouble With the Curve	Warner Bros.	$12,720,000	New	$12,720,000
4	Finding Nemo 3d	WALT DISNEY	$9,446,000	- 43%	$29,979,000
5	Resident Evil: Retribution	Sony/Columbia	$6,700,000	- 68%	$33,468,000
6	Dredd	Lionsgate	$6,300,000	New	$6,300,000
7	The Master	The Weinstein Company	$5,000,000	+ 579%	$6,055,883
8	The Possession	Lionsgate	$2,360,000	- 59%	$45,279,627
9	Lawless	The Weinstein Company	$2,321,000	- 47%	$34,511,919
10	ParaNorman	Focus Features	$2,296,987	- 26%	$52,566,425
11	The Bourne Legacy	Universal Pictures	$1,652,805	- 42%	$110,445,505
12	The Odd Life of Timothy Green	Walt Disney Pictures	$1,531,000	- 41%	$48,643,000
	Also Opening/Notables
	The Perks of Being a Wallflower	Summit Entertainment	$244,000	New	$244,000
	My Uncle Rafael	Rocky Mountain	$100,210	New	$100,210
	Diana Vreeland: the Eye Has To Travel	Samuel Goldwyn	$64,238	New	$64,238
	Occupy Unmasked	Magnolia	$44,000	New	$44,000
	Brooklyn Brothers Beat the Best	Oscilloscope	$6,537	New	$6,537
	Hellbouynd?	Area 23a	$4,275	New	$4,275
	Arbitrage	Roadside Attractions	$1,250,000	- 38%	$3,900,000
	Last Ounce of Courage	Rocky Mountain	$546,964	- 66%	$2,749,150
	Stolen	Millennium	$32,508	- 82%	$288,007
	10 Years	Anchor Bay	$78,109	+ 244%	$109,203
	The Words	CBS Films	$775,000	- 73%	$11,019,571
	Detropia	Loki Films	$37,200	- 12%	$131,415
	The Expendables 2	Lionsgate	$1,431,000	- 55%	$82,992,952
	The Campaign	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,230,000	- 49%	$85,011,000
	2016: Obama's America	Rocky Mountain Pictures	$917,551	- 54%	$32,002,626
	The Dark Knight Rises	Warner Bros.	$1,260,000	- 43%	$0
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations

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