Daily Box Office Analysis

By David Mumpower

August 21, 2012

I am an Academy Award nominated screenwriter.

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Evaluating the movies individually, Timothy Green grossed $1,276,554 on Monday. This brings its running total to $16,377,472. The movie appears fated for a box office total in the $35-$45 million range, an acceptable amount for a $40 million production. If the Disney feature does any business overseas, it will exit theaters in the black. If not, its modest losses will be counterbalanced by its secondary marketplace revenue from home video release.

Hope Springs is another The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. The John Madden release earned $45,592,328 domestically. Hope Springs will surpass that total. The movie fell only 38% during its second weekend. Its Monday box office of $915,393 represents the first time that Hope Springs has earned less than a million dollars on a single day. Still, it has now grossed $35,978,714 after 13 days in theaters. I calculate its final box office performance just north of $50 million. I also could be low-balling that if Hope Springs continues to maintain at the same level in weeks four and five. This is a tremendous result for a $35 million production about sex between old people.

I already mentioned Sparkle’s troubles earlier in this column. The number eight movie in North America earned $874,812 yesterday. As I said, the 69% Sunday-to-Monday drop is the worst in the top ten. The movie’s Sunday total of $2,820,133 was cause for optimism before it fell off a cliff on Monday. I’m not going to read too much into either data point right now. What I will say is that I thought Sparkle had a real chance of breaking out this past weekend. With only $12,518,154 after four days in theaters, it is clearly not a box office factor.




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Rounding out the top ten are two of the older titles still hanging around. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days fell a substantial 52% to $3,834,737 over the weekend. On Monday, its drop of 52% to $513,746 is ostensibly modest. Still, its $39,260,804 represents most of its final domestic box office. Dog Days will fall short of Rodrick Rules as expected.

Total Recall’s situation is even grimmer. The Colin Farrell action flick is earning only $409,193 on weekdays now. It is done. After 18 days in theaters, the film has grossed only $52,164,465 against a $125 production budget and negative cost at least $40 million beyond that. While international revenue doubles the overall earnings of the movie, this one will not put a smile on the face of anybody at Sony.

Combined box office revenue for the top ten yesterday was $12.9 million. This is a 10% decline from last Thursday’s $14.3 million. In case you are wondering, there is a Wednesday opener this week that will boost box office. Alas, the film is the Dax Shepard/Bradley Cooper monstrosity, Hit and Run. So, anybody holding out for a hero is going to be every bit as disappointed as Bonnie Tyler.


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