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Weekend Forecast for June 22-24, 2012

By Reagen Sulewski

June 22, 2012

All the girls are going to want to take archery classes now.

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One of the first films constructed entirely out of kitsch, AL:VH (as all the cool kids will be calling it) turns into an over-the-top action film as a film with its title must simply be. Directed by Timur Bekmambetov of Wanted and Night Watch fame, and produced by Tim Burton, it's prioritizing style over substance almost to completion, including being filmed in 3D because of course it is. Starring Benjamin Walker (who you might vaguely remember from some things but wouldn't recognize here) as Lincoln and Rufus Sewell as the vampire leader, it's clearly not banking on its cast to move tickets. It truly is just the title, and either you're thinking “that's awesome” or “that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard”, and there's precious little middle ground. That's probably good for around $15 million this weekend.

Lastly, receiving only a modest release in about 1,600 venues, is Seeking a Friend For the End of the World, which seems to posit the question “what if Bruce Willis failed in Armageddon?” With the end of the world imminent due to an asteroid impact, Steve Carell's character starts contemplating his life and his romantic relationships that went awry, and sets out on a road trip with his neighbor (Keira Knightley) to find out what went wrong. No time like when there's no time, right? Along the way, they continue to connect with various other people celebrating the end of the human race in their own particular ways, from hedonism to sadness to pure bull-headed bureaucratic persistence.

One could be bitter that this rips off almost wholesale the premise of the brilliant 1998 Canadian movie Last Night, or I could just advocate for you to find it by whatever means necessary. While you're looking for that, this might be a decent substitute, albeit one that's kind of schmaltzed up. Carell has a fitting sad-sack look about him to carry the melancholic nature of this plot, and Knightley is a solid choice for the more positive antidote to that. Carell's built up a pretty solid streak of opening weekends, albeit with some animated family films in that mix, but this is still a film that puts its unhappy ending right in the title of the film, and it's hard to picture a film that's a guaranteed downer as a real audience grabber. Hence the smaller release schedule, I guess. Look for around $6 million here.

One animated film gives way to another at the top of the charts, and Madagascar 3 drops to at least second if not lower this weekend after two weeks at the top. It's already ahead of the pace posted by the two previous films in this franchise, albeit only marginally so. This may be the first of the trio to break the $200 million domestic mark, although it wouldn't be by much if it does. With the solid and consistent numbers this franchise continues to put up, Madagascar 4 can only be a green-light away. It'll add around $19 million to its total this weekend.




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The audience verdict on Prometheus was harsh, as it dropped almost 60% in its second weekend, something that may put Ridley Scott's proposed sequels in danger. Although it's one of the more talked about films of the summer, it's not totally for positive reasons, and the film is likely to struggle to reach the $150 million mark. I'd look for about $10 million this weekend.

Big drops also seem like they're in store for last week's new films, Rock of Ages and That's My Boy, both of which flopped despite their big name stars on the marquee. Tom Cruise bears only part of the blame for the karaoke fest that is Rock of Ages, while it's hard to blame anyone but Adam Sandler for That's My Boy (I'd wager that Andy Samberg is right now wearing a fake mustache and talking in a funny accent, both to disguise himself and to figure out his character for his next movie). Rock of Ages should fare a little better for having actually tried to be good, while Sandler's idiot man-child ship may have finally sailed, or at least left port for a while. Look for $8 million for Rock of Ages, and around $6 million for That's My Boy.

Snow White and the Huntsman recovered nicely from a huge second weekend drop and is headed for around $150 million as a final total, which would be truly excellent if it hadn't cost $175 million to make. Still, as a live-action fairy-tale action movie, that's a solid showing. Give it $8 million this weekend.

After a couple weeks of steep drops, Men in Black 3 got a respite and earned $10 million last weekend, to push it over the $150 million milestone. Even with that, $200 million is likely out of reach. It, along with The Avengers, should show up at around $6 million this weekend. The two films couldn't have much different box office stories, though, as the latter super hero film is just a week and a half away from becoming the third film to hit $600 million.


Forecast: Weekend of June 22-24, 2012
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Brave 4,164 New 59.7
2 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted 3,920 -343 19.4
3 Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 3,106 New 15.3
4 Prometheus 2,858 -584 10.3
5 Snow White and the Huntsman 2,914 -787 8.4
6 Rock of Ages 3,470 0 8.1
7 Seeking a Friend For the End of the World 1,618 New 6.7
8 That's My Boy 3,030 0 6.5
9 The Avengers 2,230 -352 6.2
10 Men in Black 3 2,462 -673 6.0

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