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Weekend Forecast for June 1-3, 2012

By Reagen Sulewski

June 1, 2012

And there was much rejoicing.

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A smaller, focused release also hits theaters this weekend with For Greater Glory. This appears to be a religiously targeted movie about a small conflict in Mexico in the 1920s between the government and Roman Catholics. It boasts a fairly impressive cast of Hispanic and Latin actors, including Andy Garcia, Eva Longoria, Nestor Carbonell and Catalina Moreno, as well as Peter O'Toole, Bruce Greenwood and Bruce McGill. It's the directorial debut of the visual effects supervisor for the Narnia films, though I doubt there's too many talking lions in this one (or maybe there are – I'm not as up on my Mexican history as I should be). While some of these hyper-focused films have had solid opening weekends in the past – I'm thinking particularly of last year's Courageous here – that's usually with the help of some major studio help. The distributor of this film is the same one that released the Sarah Palin documentary, and we all know how that turned out. This isn't going to be as divisive a movie, but I'm not expecting fireworks, and maybe around $3 million on 700 and change venues.

So apparently, no matter what decade a Men in Black movie is released in, it'll earn about $55 million opening weekend. With the rumored $300 million price tag and the big promotional press from Will Smith and company, it's hard to view this as anything but a disappointment and a warning to all other potential unneccesary-sequeltarians. Considering how inessential this film really was, I can't see there being a large amount of second-chancers for this, and it should fade away quickly. A second weekend of $27 million seems about right here.




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The Avengers will pass The Dark Knight's $533 million total possibly by Thursday, or at the very latest on Friday afternoon. This, in 28 or 29 days what it took Batman over 200 to do (admittedly, it was the bulk of the way there after about 60). Next target: Titanic, though its old total of $600 million is much more realistic than the re-release figure of $658 million and counting. While Avengers' legs haven't been uncommonly good, they're fairly solid for a blockbuster superhero movie and this weekend will be an interesting one as far as reaching those milestones. I see around $20 million for this frame.

The remaining May films are a fairly sorry lot, with most about to fall below $5 million this weekend or the next. Battleship is looking like an epic disaster that won't cross $75 million domestic. The Dictator won't either, but also didn't cost $200 million. Chernobyl Diaries is … well, a cheap horror film, so anything it earns now is pure profit, but I don't expect it to crack $20 million. Dark Shadows was the TV adaptation nobody wanted and will limp home to around $85 million. What To Expect When You're Expecting effectively killed off that Men Are From Mars movie we all knew was coming and should maybe hit $50 million.

The lone bright spot is the expanding The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which has steadily increased its box office each week. That probably ends this weekend as it hits a bit of ceiling in terms of new venues, but the film about British ex-expatriates in India has clearly made a connection with audiences and could run for many, many weeks this summer.


Forecast: Weekend of June 1-3, 2012
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Snow White and the Huntsman 3,772 New 42.3
2 Men in Black III 4,248 0 27.5
3 The Avengers 3,670 -248 20.4
4 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 1,294 +61 5.2
5 The Dictator 2,649 -345 4.8
6 Battleship 3,105 -597 4.2
7 Dark Shadows 3,002 -402 3.8
8 What To Expect When You're Expecting 2,907 -114 3.8
9 For Greater Glory 757 New 3.5
10 Chernobyl Diaries 2,433 0 2.7

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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