Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

March 5, 2012

That's $1,000 for you and $2,000 for you and....

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Edwin Davies: I think there's a pretty good chance that it could open higher than The Lorax. As Tim points out, once you take Toy Story 3 out of the equation, there is a well-established level that Pixar films consistently reach. However, films that have premises that are far harder sells than Brave's - namely WALL-E and Up, which opened to $63 million and $68 million, respectively - have managed to fall within that wheelhouse despite their seemingly uncommercial natures. Plus, both of those films were released at a time when 3D was far less prevalent than it is now, so that could help Brave break through into the $70 - 80 million range.

Brett Beach: What's the cliche: people going to movies gets people to go to movies? Coming off the biggest February ever (more people to see trailers) and with the potential heavy hitters spread out fairly evenly over this year, could create a climate where a lot of potentially strong opening weekends get elevated to even more phantasmic heights. I have already confessed that I can't read The Hunger Games well enough to be certain in an estimate for it, but I will says I don't see Brave's opening weekend beating The Lorax (though I think its final gross will).




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Max Braden: To me, Brave looks like a cross between Tangled and How to Train Your Dragon. Dragon opened to just under $44 million in March 2010 and Tangled needed the Thanksgiving weekend to open at $69 million. Brave doesn't have the cute little animal things that will appeal to the kids who went to see The Lorax. It might be a tight race for the overall gross, but I don't see Brave beating the opening weekend take.

Kim Hollis: I don't think that we can really compare this to Tangled and How to Train Your Dragon, even with slight similarities. This is Pixar, a trusted brand (like Dr. Seuss) and that automatically elevates the box office. With that said, I agree that Brave may open lower than The Lorax, for reasons that were mentioned. The female protagonist may skew the demographic some, and I also wonder if the performance and quality of Cars 2 didn't leave some folks who were previously proponents of the studio to take a more "wait and see" approach. I don't think it's going to be significantly less, but it's really going to depend upon the marketing moving forward.


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